'A setback for peace': Civilians in Yemen uncertain about their country's future after Trump’s US election victory

“His comeback can be a setback for peace in Yemen,” said Mohammed Ali, a university graduate in Sanaa, sharing his view on Donald Trump’s 2024 US election win. 

Mohammed's concerns are shared by many Yemenis, who are unsure of what the future holds for their country, which, for decades, has seen the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Houthis as deadly enemies since 2015, when civil strife erupted between the two sides.

With Trump's return to power, civilians fear the return of tough measures, especially the redesignation of the Iran-backed Houthis as a terrorist group — a move that could make life even harder for millions of civilians.

For context, in the final days of his presidency, Trump added the Houthi group to the list of foreign terrorist organisations, sparking outrage from both local and international humanitarian groups. However, when President Joe Biden took office in 2021, he removed the Houthis from the list.

“Redesignating the Houthis as a terrorist organisation cannot overthrow them overnight; it can only transform civilians' lives into hell. That is one reason why I, and countless Yemenis, fear the consequences of Trump’s comeback,” Mohammed shared with The New Arab. 

Beyond the redesignation of the Houthis as a terrorist group, there are also concerns about more aggressive US military actions in Yemen. 

Earlier this year, the Houthis repeatedly fired missiles at US forces in the Red Sea in response to the Israeli war on Gaza, which led to a series of US airstrikes on Yemen.

However, these strikes did not stop the group from continuing its actions, and right now, there are predictions that the US administration may choose to increase military operations against the Houthis.

Omar Amri, a 30-year-old schoolteacher in Sanaa, told The New Arab: “Once in office, Trump, in my view, will not follow the same strategy when it comes to dealing with the Houthis. He will be tougher and more decisive, and this will bring Yemen fresh ordeals.”

For some, however, Trump’s return is seen as positive news, and they have welcomed his second term. This view is particularly evident within the Yemeni government, where a sense of optimism prevailed when Trump was declared the 47th President of the US. 

Rashad Al-Alimi, Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, which is recognised by the international community as Yemen's legitimate authority, congratulated Trump on his victory, wishing him “success in his presidential duties.”

Rashad also expressed his willingness to work with Trump to “restore Yemen’s state institutions and end the Iran-backed Houthi coup.”

Calculating Trump's next moves

Looking ahead, Yemenis feel certain that Trump will be more vicious in Yemen for several reasons.

First, his return has revived discussions about a renewed military face off between the Yemeni rivals.

“With the American go-ahead and support, dealing military blows to the Houthis will be certain. Trump’s return to power can be an opportunity for achieving a military breakthrough in Yemen,” Nayef Yahya, a pro-government soldier, told The New Arab.

Then, looking at his past actions, Trump, in the first ten days of arriving in the White House as president in 2017, ordered a ground mission in Yemen, killing a number of al-Qaeda operatives and leaving several civilians dead.

According to Nayef, ordering similar or even bigger operations is not unlikely, as both groups, Al-Qaeda and the Houthis, are viewed as terrorist organisations.

Nayef added, “Given that the Houthis are a more organised and capable force, the US cannot do everything alone to fight them. It needs the cooperation of the Yemeni government. If this sort of cooperation materialises, the Houthi group will endure a tough battle.”

Unfazed by return

Currently, the Houthi leadership and pro-Houthi Yemenis have shown no concern about Trump’s win in the US presidential election.

Faisal Mohammed, a 36-year-old resident of Sanaa, said he is neither happy nor worried about Trump’s success in the election.

Like Mohammed and Omar, there is also an acknowledgment that the US administration will likely intensify its military presence in Yemen.

As Faisal puts it: “The current US president is not a peace dove. American warplanes have bombed many sites in Yemen since January this year. So, Trump will repeat what his predecessor did. We expect no good from the US”

In response to the warplanes that hovered over Sanaa on November 9, just days after Trump’s election victory, which the Houthis described as "American-British aggression," Faisal confirms: “The US violence in Yemen is already established.”

Also weighing in on Trump’s return, Houthi movement chief Abdulmalek al-Houthi said his anti-Israel and anti-US position will not soften, and Trump cannot dictate anything to Yemenis.

In a televised speech on Thursday, November 7, Abdulmalek said, “Neither Trump nor Biden, nor any criminal in this world, will be able to deter us from our firm, principled, and religious stance in supporting the Palestinian people.”

According to Abdulmalek, attempting to frighten Yemenis with Trump will not work, as the Yemeni people “do not fear any tyrant in this world.”

Multi-faceted escalation 

As the Houthi leadership displays defiance, Yemeni political observers say that American escalation cannot be ruled out after Trump’s return to the White House next year.

Political analyst Saeed Aqlan believes that Trump's victory will affect the US stance on the Yemeni crisis, explaining: “Trump is likely to take military action against the Houthi group now that it has started directly targeting American interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. He is directly responsible to Americans for defending US interests in the region.”

Saeed added, “Therefore, I believe he will escalate economically, militarily, and politically against the Houthis, but this escalation will be coordinated with regional partners, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

Omar also described Trump and the Houthi group as “pig-headed,” adding that the Yemeni population will bear the brunt if escalation occurs.

“Our misery is already bad, and any escalation will make it worse,” Omar explained.