How refugee displacement is aggravating water and food security in the Middle East

The water footprint of refugee displacement increased by nearly 75% globally between 2005 and 2016. Between 2005 and 2016, there were roughly 23.1 million displaced refugees worldwide, which is the highest number ever. 

A recent paper, which was published on May 23 in Nature Communications, identified that increased demand for water was mostly concentrated in a few water-scarce countries — including Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan — that are relatively reliant on local food production.

The authors found that increasing water stress was concentrated in already water-stressed nations in the Middle East when taking into account the locations of geopolitical events that resulted in refugee movements between 2005 and 2016. For instance, it was shown that refugee migrations caused Jordan's water stress to rise by as much as 75%.

"The refugee water footprint is calculated by estimating the amount of water that refugee communities consume in meeting their daily needs, including domestic, agricultural, and health uses"

Water expert Osama Sallam, a researcher at the Egyptian National Water Research Centre and water projects manager at the Environment Agency in Abu Dhabi, UAE, explained that the refugee water footprint is a concept used to measure water consumption and its impact on the environment by refugees or displaced persons.

"The refugee water footprint is calculated by estimating the amount of water that refugee communities consume in meeting their daily needs, including domestic, agricultural, and health uses."

Sallam told The New Arab that the water footprint of refugees is affected by several factors, such as the number of refugees, the length of stay, the level of access to clean water and sanitation, and the quality of available facilities. He noted that the water footprint of refugees is often high due to the urgent need to provide water for the basic needs of daily life, health care, and basic agriculture.

"Our analysis has demonstrated that a few nations, which house an unproportionate number of refugees while facing serious preexisting water security issues, bear a disproportionate amount of the water stress associated with refugee displacements," says Marc Muller, Associate Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Science at the University of Notre Dame, in the USA, and the lead author of the paper.

Muller explained to The New Arab that this burden exacerbates a broader landscape of water inequality and injustice in the Global South, where mismanagement of resources, bad governance, the commodification of land and water, extractive industries, environmental cost shifting, and colonial legacies frequently amplify water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions that will be severely impacted by climate change.

The researcher warned that the repercussions could be severe in countries already facing severe water stress and that tend to often rely on local water resources for food production, such as Jordan and Lebanon.

Turkey has been the largest refugee-hosting country in the world for the past nine years, hosting four million refugees at a time when a small country such as Lebanon hosts approximately 1.5 million refugees from Syria, including approximately 815,000 registered with UNHCR.

"Jordan has suffered probably the most because of the huge number of refugees compared to the total population that the country has"

Jordan hosts the second-largest number of refugees per capita worldwide, with over 760,000 individuals registered with UNHCR.

Jordan seems to be the most affected among the other host countries in the region. Over the past ten years, domestic food demands have increased by almost more than 60% due to the influx of refugees escaping the conflict in Syria, according to a senior economist in the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) MENA office, Ahmed Mukhtar.

He pointed out that even humanitarian organisations seek local sources for securing the food they provide to refugees, and this puts pressure on food availability and prices in the host countries.

"I think Jordan has suffered probably the most because of the huge number of refugees compared to the total population that the country has. Turkey is managing the situation because of the huge local production of food. For Lebanon, sometimes there are problems related to the exact calculations of refugees; also, the country has been hosting (Palestinian) refugees for a very long time, so they are more integrated into the community," Mukhtar told The New Arab.

The lead author, Muller, added that the transfer of water demand associated with the displacement of refugees towards countries of destination is not currently significantly mitigated through global trade, through the import of commodities and food products, in what is known as virtual water.

The presence of a large number of refugees increases the population pressure on the water and public infrastructure in the host countries.

This leads to a decline in the quality of water and sanitation services and other infrastructure, which increases economic and social challenges, according to expert Sallam. He also warned that the increasing economic and social pressure caused by the presence of refugees and the high water footprint could lead to an increase in tensions and social and political conflicts in the host countries.

In terms of managing the refugee issue in the region, the FAO expert suggests that enhancing the forecasting and planning strategies would help the host countries deal with the issue. 

However, the authors believe that practical actions would be suitable for the short-term response. "Increased imports of foods that require a lot of water from countries with plenty of water, whether through food aid or advantageous trade conditions, stand out as promising strategies to short-term reduce looming water crises, along with actions to increase the water use efficiency of local food production," said Muller.

To prevent the cascading impacts of conflicts — the Ukrainian crisis, for example — on food security, Muller and his colleagues suggest creating a robust trade network where countries may respond to shocks by establishing new alliances.

Mohammed El-Said is Science Editor at Daily News Egypt. His work has appeared in Science Magazine, Nature Middle East, Scientific American Arabic Edition, SciDev and other prominent regional and international media outlets.

Follow him on Twitter: @MOHAMMED2SAID