The Houthis' options in the confrontation with Saudi Arabia

The Ansar Allah movement (commonly known as the Houthis) group is now in a direct fight with Saudi Arabia and nine allied states. This puts the military victories the group achieved over the past two years and the gains accumulated from the takeover of Yemen's capital Sanaa to the test. Either the group will prove its strength in the new battle, or these victories will become defeats, all at once.

The escalation took on a sharper dimension with a ground operation being considered by the regional alliance leading Operation Decisive Storm, which has so far been limited to air strikes. If this happens, it will mean the operation will no longer be only "disciplinary" and meant to force the Houthis to accept dialogue, but will rather be intended to neutralise the group militarily.

A full mobilisation

The leader of the Houthis Abdul-Malik al-Houthi described Saudi Arabia as the "devil's horn".

The Houthis have declared a full mobilisation against Saudi Arabia through their various media arms, proclaiming they will work to topple the Saudi regime. This follows a speech by the leader of the group Abdul-Malik al-Houthi Thursday in which he lambasted Saudi Arabia, describing it as the "devil's horn".

Regarding the options the group might pursue against the 10-party coalition, Mohammed Nasser Bakhiti, member of the group political bureau, told Al-Araby al-Jadeed the measures will be "announced in due course". He then said, "The Houthis expect support from no one, but rely on God and our people, and shall surprise everyone", in response to a question about Iranian support for the Houthis.

He continued "The international coalition led by the United States is not acting to resolve the Yemeni crisis [...]. The Yemeni people cannot rely on this coalition to resolve their crisis, and at the same time, this coalition will not be able to break the will of a rebelling people."

Many observers agree that the military operation came as a surprise to the Houthi movement, which was seeking to consolidate its power before entering into a military confrontation with foreign powers. The current war started at a time when the group's control in Sanaa and other provinces remains fragile, in the absence of direct lines of support from Iran.

The ground battle, signs of which began to emerge on Friday, will take place in the border regions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi stronghold of Saada. A ground operation could push the Houthis to redeploy their troops in the capital and other cities in Saada to counter Saudi-led forces, which means the other forces on the ground would regain the initiative and force the Houthis to return to their stronghold in Saada.

On the other hand, one must not underestimate the nature and quantity of weapons the group has acquired, which could allow it to resist for a long time in any ground battle along the border with Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, if Operation Decisive Storm continues to target positions of the Yemeni army, the majority of which has rebelled against President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi as many in its ranks remain loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, this could alter the course of the ground battle, with Houthis and pro-Saleh army forces fighting together.

The Houthis could also use the sympathy of large segments of the population of the northern provinces allowing them to mobilise more recruits outside their traditional base.

The terrain in the border region is rugged and mountainous, which will help defenders reduce their casualties. The Houthi group is expected to deploy in scattered formations to limit losses from air strikes as much as possible, and remain prepared to resist any ground operation.

The lessons from the sixth war against the Houthis, which saw Saudi intervention alongside Yemeni forces between 2009 and 2010, tell us that any ground battle would not be a picnic for either side.

Defiance

Abdul-Malik al-Houthi's speech on Thursday suggests the Houthi group is meeting "decisiveness" with "defiance", and is not considering political solutions, a return to dialogue, or bending with the storm at present. The leader of the group declared instead that the war would be met with resistance on five fronts, including through military, security and economic measures.

It seems Saleh is seeking to use the battle to his advantage, in a way that would weaken his Houthi allies and preserve forces loyal to him.

The battle facing the Houthi movement, unlike previous battles, is not with tribal groups and Yemeni military units fighting without cover from the state, but with modern military formations with significant logistical support. The battle's timing is also critical, seeing that the group is also facing many internal foes whom the Houthis had humiliated and tormented over the past few years.

For his part, former President Saleh, who allied with the Houthis in their expansion campaign in 2014 and 2015, preferred to take a more diplomatic tone in response to Operation Decisive Storm. On Thursday, his party declared it was not part of the current battle. On Friday, Saleh declared an initiative to resolve the crisis, but did not give much detail.

It seems Saleh is seeking to use the battle to his advantage, in a way that would weaken his Houthi allies and preserve forces loyal to him and limit their losses, in order to maintain a key role in any post-war negotiations.

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.