Iran backs out of Doha oil-freeze talks

After announcing late on Friday that the country would send its representative to Sunday's meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members, Iran has backed out of the summit altogether, sources told Reuters.

In an effort to halt the nearly two-year oil price collapse, around 18 countries, representing about 70 percent of the world’s oil production, are expected to meet in Doha to agree upon a collective oil output freeze to January 2016 levels.

Iran had said it would not join a freeze agreement as it seeks to raise its oil output and market share to pre-sanctions levels and had previously decided against sending its oil minister.

The country began exporting oil into the European market after sanctions were lifted following its nuclear deal last year with world powers. It produces 3.2 million barrels of oil a day now, with hopes of increasing to 4 million by April 2017.

Ahead of the meeting, the International Energy Agency said that a freeze, rather than cuts, would have limited impact on physical oil supplies. However, discussions of production cuts have repeatedly been ruled out by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali Al Naimi who on Wednesday told the Saudi newspaper al-Hayat to “forget about this topic.”

Following two months of volatility, oil prices rose last week in anticipation of the summit. The optimism has since dampened as traders and analysts concluded that the meeting would not result in any radical changes.

"We put the probability of a successful freeze agreement ... at 50 percent," Societe Generale analyst Michael Wittner wrote this month. "There is simply a tremendous amount of uncertainty."

There are no concrete next steps beyond having a review meeting, and any sanctions in the event of non-compliance will also be unlikely, analysts have said.

The feeling was echoed by Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. “The best that oil bulls can hope for is a gentlemen’s meeting and soft commitment to freeze production at early 2016 maximum levels,” he said.

There are no concrete next steps beyond having a review meeting, and any sanctions in the event of non-compliance will also be unlikely, analysts have said.

Sunday’s summit will be the extension of a preliminary deal made in February between Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela.

Although low oil prices are good for consumers, they are crippling the economies of countries that are dependent on oil revues, like Nigeria and Venezuela, and are squeezing the wealthy Gulf nations

Some of the world’s biggest producers including the US, Canada, China, Brazil and Norway won’t be present. Libya, whose output is crippled by conflict, is the only OPEC member state not attending in addition to Iran now.

Although low oil prices are good for consumers, they are crippling the economies of countries that are dependent on oil revues, like Nigeria and Venezuela, and are squeezing the wealthy Gulf nations. Some OPEC members are producing record levels of crude while prices are at half their level from two years ago.

As was the case following a contentious OPEC meeting in December, an inconclusive summit is likely to result in a tumble in oil price, with Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia facing the biggest threat.

Now that Iran has retracted from the meeting entirely, it remains to be seen how the participating countries can reach a deal given Saudia Arabia’s stance that it won't back any freeze if Iran doesn't agree to it.