Syria ceasefire announcement met with scepticism

Following news that a ceasefire in Syria is due to commence on Saturday, some have already expressed scepticism that Russia and the regime will put a halt to bombardment.

MENA

4 min read

The New Arab

22 February, 2016

Could bombardment in Syria really halt within a week? [Getty]

The Syrian ceasefire announced by the United States and Russia will only work if there is a "major change of behaviour" by the Syrian regime and Russia, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said on Monday.

"It will only succeed if there is a major change of behaviour by the Syrian regime and its backers. Russia, in particular, must honour this agreement by ending its attacks on Syrian civilians and moderate opposition groups," he said.

Syria's main opposition grouping said it would accept a ceasefire deal announced by the United States and Russia on Monday if humanitarian "conditions" were met.

The Riyadh-based High Negotiations Committee said in a statement that it "agreed to respond positively to international efforts to reach a truce deal".

But it's "commitment to the truce is conditional" on the lifting of sieges, release of prisoners, a halt to bombardment of civilians and the delivery of humanitarian aid.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the deal as a "long-awaited signal of hope", and urged all sides to abide by it.

The HNC, meeting in Riyadh on Monday, has said any ceasefire must include provisions for Russia, Iran and foreign militia forces that back the regime to stop fighting

US President Barack Obama and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are set to speak "in the next days or so" on the terms of implementing the agreement, according to US Secretary of State John Kerry.

Announced by top diplomats in Munich earlier this month, the ceasefire failed to take hold by last Friday as initially planned.

Part of a plan that also included expanded humanitarian access, the proposal aims to pave the way for a resumption of peace talks that collapsed earlier this month in Geneva.

The talks had been scheduled to resume on 25 February, but the UN Syria envoy has acknowledged that date is no longer realistic.

On Monday, the UN commission of inquiry said civilians remain the "primary victims" in Syria's war and that accountability for war crimes must be part of the peace process.

"Paradoxically, the international and regional stakeholders that are ostensibly pushing for a peaceful solution to the war are the same that continue to feed the military escalation," the 31-page report said.

The HNC, meeting in Riyadh on Monday, has said any ceasefire must include provisions for Russia, Iran and foreign militia forces that back the regime to stop fighting.

The agreement did not explicitly refer to demands that have long been called for by the Syrian opposition, especially in regards to releasing hundreds of thousands of detainees.

Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army, Brigadier General Ahmad Berry told The New Arab that "the agreement was one-sided" and felt that Russia was a winner in the declaration.

Even Russia's intense firepower has proved to be insufficient to hold the territory evacuated by the moderate Syrian opposition. This suggests that the regime and its allies are likely to focus on a single aspect of recent UNSC resolutions: a complete ceasefire in the Syrian conflict
- Doha Research Institute

Haitham al-Maleh, a member of the negotiating team to Geneva and head of the legal Committee of the National coalition said he was sending a draft to all factions, except al-Nusra and IS", to sign and approve before noon on Friday.

Regarding Russia's possible exploitation of the agreement in order to bombard the opposition under the pretext of striking IS, al-Maleh told The New Arab that the opposition would put forward a draft to the UN Security Council concerning the classification of terrorist organisations in Syria.

Aqab Yahya, member of the opposition coalition said that there has been a "shift towards a truce for weeks, perhaps as a prelude to political negotiations", but added that he was worried about Moscow's commitment to the agreement.

Despite the widespread scepticism towards Russia's schemes that have followed months of bombardment, killing thousands of civilians, some analysts have felt that a ceasefire may be in Russia's interest.

"The high price it would pay in casualties, however, makes a complete and outright military triumph for the regime in and around the Aleppo Governorate very unlikely, despite a number of smaller breakthroughs it has enjoyed," read a recent policy report by the Doha Research Institute.

"Even Russia's intense firepower has proved to be insufficient to hold the territory evacuated by the moderate Syrian opposition. This suggests that the regime and its allies are likely to focus on a single aspect of recent UNSC resolutions: a complete ceasefire in the Syrian conflict," it said.

"Only such a ceasefire would allow the Assad regime to consolidate its control over areas it has recently captured, and where the population is resolutely opposed to the regime in Damascus."