Turkey and Israel: Between gas and Gaza

With Turkey and Israel about to restart diplomatic relations after a six-year hiatus, it would be remiss to not mention the role of natural gas in the region. In 2010, Israel discovered the Leviathan gas field - a mammoth discovery of 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas worth US$95 billion on its shore.

The discovery had since been caught up in regulatory hurdles, until June of this year. The reversal in Israel's natural gas fortunes has naturally caught Turkey's attention.

To put it in context, the Israeli government recently approved a revised regulatory structure deal that was originally delayed by the Supreme Court over monopoly concerns. The companies behind the Leviathan also operate the Tamar gas field, which was discovered only a year earlier.

With one of the largest gas discoveries in the last decade now ready for development, Turkey is all ears and the Mavi Marmara incident has conveniently turned into water under the bridge. The question arises then, of why natural gas is such a large priority for both countries?

For Turkey, it's all about serving as an energy link to Europe, which could also lead to greater influence in relation to EU policy in the Middle East and greater geo-strategic influence overall. With the Trans-Anatolian pipeline already under construction from Azerbaijan and Turkish Stream back on the table after renewed ties with Russia, normalising relations with Israel is a small price to pay towards further market diversification.

By reinserting itself back into the Eastern Mediterranean gas conversation, Turkey also takes the spotlight away from Egypt, Cyprus and Greece and brings Israel's focus back on transiting gas through its territory.

It also allows Turkey to commence aid to the Gaza Strip - justification Turkey can use to frame the normalisation to those who might be critical of such a rapprochement. With existing energy interests in Israel, Turkey is reportedly willing to put up $2.5 billion towards the construction of a potential pipeline.

Turkey is reportedly willing to put up $2.5 billion towards the construction of a potential pipeline

From Israel's perspective, it's quite simple. The successful development of the Leviathan gas field is a defining moment in the nation's history from being a net energy importer to becoming an exporter.

The fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated unusual humility by not only apologising to Turkey for the Mavi Marmara incident, but also paying $20 million in compensation to the families of the Turkish aid workers reflects Turkey's strategic importance to Israel. 

While Israel can export to neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, the capacity to send its gas to Europe would completely alter the energy landscape, making Israel even a more vital asset to the West than it already is.

Gas from Israel would reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas, thereby loosening Russia's grip on the European market.

But challenges will lie ahead.

Israel will need to regain investor confidence after its regulatory fiasco, and convince companies to invest in its energy sector in a climate of low gas prices. On the geopolitical front, Israel will need to provide concessions to Cyprus to be able to build a pipeline through its territorial waters given Southern Cyprus' historical grievance with Turkey.

For Israel, the capacity to send its gas to Europe would completely alter the energy landscape

Cyprus may have something to gain here, as its own Aphrodite gas field can add additional capacity to the pipeline, adding to its significance.

A pipeline from Israel to Turkey would be a strategic win for the US. The US would like nothing better than to have its closest ally in the Middle East able to change the European energy dynamic, and Russia's influence along with it.

Perhaps it comes as no surprise then, that Netanyahu's apology to Turkey was brokered by the US. The move also begins to bring Turkey back into the US-NATO sphere of influence, after an acrimonious post-coup relationship that remains a topic of contention between the two countries.

Potential Israeli natural gas collaboration with both Egypt and Jordan would also ensure the stability of two major US Arab allies in a region fraught with instability. Make no mistake; The US would be the ultimate benefactor of any pipeline between Israel and Turkey. There is no doubt that Russia and Iran will be watching any development between Turkey and Israel very closely.



Aurangzeb Qureshi is a political analyst who writes on energy geopolitics and social issues in the Middle East. He is the founder of GeoPipelitics.com and his analysis and commentary have appeared in publications such as Al-Jazeera English, Al-Arabiya English, Foreign Policy Journal and Business Insider among others. Follow him on Twitter: @aqureshi80


Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.