Yemen's Houthis are prepared for a lengthy battle in the Red Sea

Shortly after Israel's war on Gaza began in October last year, Yemen's Houthis began launching attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.

Since then, the war between the Yemeni group and US-led multinational forces has only continued to escalate.

Hundreds of ships have been attacked and three sunk in that time, with at least three seafarers in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden also killed.

The momentum of assaults is likely to expand in the coming weeks and months, with the Houthis vowing to hit more Israeli-US-UK ships.

"Whatever happens …it will never affect our firm and principled position in supporting the Palestinian people, and our operations will continue, no matter what,” said the Houthi movement chief, Abdulmalek Al-Houthi, in a recent televised speech.

Despite the consequences – the Red Sea accounts for around 15 percent of global trade – the Houthis appear unstoppable.

Earlier in July, the Houthi leader said the group had targeted 170 vessels linked to the US, Israel, and Britain, adding that they seek to strengthen operations in the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea.

For people in Yemen, and beyond, it is inconceivable that the Houthis have not run out of long-range missiles and drones over the past eight months. On the contrary, the group has declared the launch of new weapons, including hypersonic missiles and explosive drone boats. 

The Houthis have proven how advanced and diverse their arsenal is. Their persistent attacks on shipping lanes off Yemen’s coast, and their latest drone assault on Tel Aviv, demonstrate that the group has considerable capabilities to continue disturbing world and regional powers. This makes underestimating them a strategic mistake.

One day after the aerial drone strike on Tel Aviv, which killed one person, Israel launched airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled Hodeidah port, killing at least nine and wounding dozens of civilians.

Rather than act as a deterrent, the Houthis welcomed the attack, as it signalled they were now in a direct war with Israelis.

“Our position is unshakeable," the Houthi leader said in response, saying the Israeli attack was designed to placate its angry and scared public.

The Houthis' growing status

The Houthis’ operations, ostensibly carried out to support Palestinians in Gaza, have changed the group's status in Yemen.

Such attacks have won the Houthis a huge number of supporters and fighters, giving the group further control over the population living under its rule, who have put to one side the disadvantages of its leadership.

While the Houthis have relied on a military strategy to elevate their status and amplify their leverage, they have also given importance to growing their popularity base.

Abdulrahman Nasser, a 28-year-old resident of Sanaa, told The New Arab that the Houthis' fight against the US in the Red Sea, and their attacks on Israel, have earned them greater popularity in areas under their control.

When Nasser goes to Friday protests against Israel’s war on Gaza in Al-Sabeen Square, he says he is stunned by the size of the crowds.

"These millions of people gather every Friday at the request of the Houthi leader. Before the Red Sea escalations and before the Houthi attacks on Israel, the leader of the Houthi group would not be able to mobilise such a massive number of people," he told TNA.

"The stance of lots of Yemenis has changed in favour of the Houthis, and the Houthis' image has been polished. Only those living in Yemen can realise this change in public opinion," Nasser added.

Houthi confidence is at its peak today, given the group's enormous military capabilities and growing popularity. As a result, it shows no reluctance to engage in a war with local opponents or regional and international powers, including the US and Israel.

Sustained Red Sea combat

Stopping Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden has been a challenging task for Western powers, including Washington and London.

When the two Western countries began striking Houthi sites in January this year, it was expected that such airstrikes would neutralise the Houthi threats and deplete their missile and drone capabilities. However, hundreds of US-UK air raids have failed to diminish the group's rocket and drone arsenal.

US military officials admit just how demanding combat against the Houthis is. Bryan Clark, a former Navy submariner and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said in June, "This is the most sustained combat that the US Navy has seen since World War II - easily, no question".

Since the Red Sea escalation began late last year, the US Navy has fired over 100 standard surface-to-air missiles - which cost as much as $4 million each - to down $10,000 Houthi drones.

On 12 July, the supercarrier USS Theodore Roosevelt arrived in the Red Sea, replacing the carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which departed in late June. The latter was vital for aerial operations on Houthi sites and for conducting helicopter rescue missions for ships that were exposed to Houthi assaults.

But despite the massive military assets of the US in the region, Houthi drones, missiles, and gunboats continue to find a way to hit ships. Simply put, Western military operations have been costly and have failed to deter Houthi attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, or elsewhere in the region.

Avoiding an all-out war

Recapturing Hodeidah province and its ports from the Houthis would be the first step towards ending threats to international shipping lanes, opponents of the Houthis say.

However, such a move would lead to an all-out war, a scenario that the US does not seek to pursue, according to Yemeni political researchers.

"The United States is no longer willing to engage in new battles in the Middle East, especially after its experience in Afghanistan and Iraq," Mustafa Naji, a Yemeni researcher, told TNA.

Naji believes that American involvement in a war in Yemen would be "pointless", as it would mean expanding the war from Gaza to Yemen, which will "serve Iranian interests".

But the Iran-backed Houthi group has virtually suffocated global shipping routes in the Red Sea, reducing the flow of ships by 40 percent and affecting the economies of numerous countries worldwide.

With no sign of the crisis ending, its continuation will continue to be a huge burden on regional and international stability and commerce.

For the Houthis, the only viable option to return calm, they say, is ending Israel’s war on Gaza. With no sign of a change in Tel Aviv’s strategy, and with tensions escalating with Hezbollah, the Red Sea battle looks set to continue.

The writer is a Yemeni journalist, reporting from Yemen, whose identity we are protecting for their security.