Would a South Yemen be viable?

The Southern Separatist Movement in Yemen has become more active over the past two weeks. There have been regular protests, and a sit-in in Aden’s al-Orodh Square. 

The al-Hirak movement's aim is to re-establish the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen or South Yemen [AR], which was dissolved when the Republic of Yemen was formed in May 1990.

But southern academics, politicians, journalists and observers are questioning al-Hirak's goals, especially in the absence of viable state institutions for which secessionists have blamed Ali Abdullah Saleh's former regime. There is no army, no dedicated education system and a weak private sector.

Southern secessionists face the further difficult task of defining how any future state will look, given not only the lack of viable infrastructure or basic state institutions, but internal divisions, the international community’s ambiguous position towards its future statehood, and the existence of al-Qaeda. Some southern factions believe it would be better to build state institutions [AR] first before going for self-determination.

Former Yemeni Prime Minister, Haider Abu Bakr al-Attas (1990-1994) has proposed a federal model in which the north and the south exist as autonomous regions for five years. After this the south will be given the right of self-determination, but only if it has built up its infrastructure during the preceding period. His proposal has faced strong opposition in both the north and the south. But some southern academics and politicians are also supportive.

Writer and analyst Yassir Hasan told al-Araby al-Jadeed that while the chances of seccession are greater now than ever before, with the north in turmoil, the necessary preconditions don't yet exist.

“Southerners do not have all the necessary components to form a state. The south has oil reserves and other assets, but this is not enough.” 

He suggested that these difficulties can be overcome if there is international and regional support for the secessionist project. 

The region’s natural resources make up around 70 percent of Yemen’s natural wealth.

A leading figure in Hirak, Fouad Rashid, argued however that all nascent states would face the same problems.

“Experts in the South will be able to replace infrastructure that has been destroyed, and build a cohesive state that holds complete sovereignty over its land, sea and air.” He added: “The South may face difficulties after independence but this is normal. However, it will need international and regional support, especially from Gulf countries.”

Southerners hope the region’s natural resources, which make up around 70 percent of Yemen’s natural wealth, will support a future state. They include oil and gas reserves, gold and other mineral deposits, fisheries and agricultural industries. Two of Yemen's main ports, Aden and Mukalla, are also located in the south.

Despite the area's wealth and potential, south Yemenis remain concerned about security and the economy. They fear a power struggle could develop due to a lack of vision, and that an independent South Yemen could become another South Sudan; independent but consumed by internal conflict.

This article is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.