Will the US benefit from France's withdrawal from Niger?

After nearly two months of escalating tensions between Paris and the coup leaders in Niamey, last week French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of his country's ambassador and military forces from Niger.

The French announcement was followed by US statements that Washington would not withdraw its soldiers from Niger, contenting itself with repositioning some of its forces in the country.

This paradox sheds light on questions related to the discrepancy between the approaches of Washington and Paris towards the Nigerien coup, and what this could mean about America’s future role in France’s traditional areas of influence.

"France's withdrawal gives Washington the opportunity to build a strong position for itself not only in Niger but in the Sahel region and West Africa"

Stab in the back

A difference between the two parties in dealing with the coup’s military junta in Niger was evident from the beginning.

While France was the loudest voice in support of military action against Niamey, Washington refused to describe what happened as a coup and appointed a new ambassador to Niger, an implicit recognition of the new reality.

In an indication of the disappointment felt by Paris, Le Monde reported that some French officials described Washington’s attempt to open a diplomatic dialogue with the military junta in Niger as “stabs in the back”.

France's withdrawal from Niger is a "gift to the United States," according to Mady Ibrahim Kante, a lecturer and researcher at the University of Legal and Political Sciences in Bamako, Mali.

Kante told The New Arab that the strong traditional relationship between Paris and Niamey prevented the expansion of American influence in the country, with France’s withdrawal giving Washington the opportunity “to build a strong position for itself not only in Niger but in the Sahel region and West Africa in general”.

Niger is the most prominent ally of the United States in combating the activity of terrorist groups in the Sahel region, and the African country hosts more than 1,000 American soldiers who participate in training and regional security operations and protect the two air bases where American service members are located, according to an analysis by the Washington Institute of Near East policy.

It adds that the United States has a single air base of its kind in the Sahel region, Air Base 201 in northern Niger, to fly drones that provide extremely important intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, and offensive capabilities to the American army, and “without those assets, the United States would be largely blind” to a range of threats posed by armed groups in the region.

For his part, Mauritanian journalist Mahfoudh Ould Salek believes that Washington’s adoption of a different approach to France was an attempt not only to “strengthen its presence in Niamey,” but also to “block the way to Russian policy in the region, which is based on Moscow presenting itself as an alternative partner to France”.

Speaking to TNA, Ould Salek, a specialist in African affairs, believes that Washington, by strengthening its relationship with Niamey, may later seek “to enhance its ties with Mali and Burkina Faso through the Nigerian portal".

Who will fill the vacuum?

France's insistence on supporting deposed President Mohamed Bazoum and considering him the legitimate leader in the country was met with corresponding steps from the military junta, most notably ending the military agreements with Paris and expelling its ambassador from the country.

Niger's reaction was not limited to the political level, as the country witnessed massive popular demonstrations against France and saw a base containing French soldiers besieged. The number of French military personnel in the African country is estimated at around 1,500.

The failure of France’s bet on a military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Niger left it with no choice but to withdraw from the country, in a scenario similar to what happened to French forces in Mali and Burkina Faso.

"The Nigerien authorities are only hostile to France and not to other external parties, which means that the country may be open to other, non-traditional parties"

This development comes in the midst of intense international competition, of which the African continent has become a main focal point, as various powers appear to be seeking to fill the “strategic vacuum” resulting from France’s withdrawal from its historical strongholds of influence.

“The Nigerien authorities are only hostile to France and not to other external parties, which means that the country may be open to other, non-traditional parties,” analyst Ould Salek told TNA.

He added that the ruling military junta in Niger only expelled France, but it did not take a position against the United States, Germany, Italy, and Turkey.

"All of them are countries that either have military bases in the country, or [are] training forces, or took steps with the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum towards establishing military bases,” Ould Salek says.

Niger may not follow the approach of Mali and Burkina Faso in relying on Russia as an alternative military partner to France, but Niamey seems closer to “adopting a multi-partnership policy, with openness to Russia as well,” according to Ould Salek.

Academic Mady Ibrahim Kante agrees, explaining that there is a potential regional alternative to fill the French vacuum in the region.

He explains that military cooperation agreements have been signed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, “which all suffer from terrorist threats,” and “if these countries are able to implement this cooperation successfully, they can become an effective force to combat armed groups in the region".

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger signed a joint defence agreement called the Alliance of Sahel States. The agreement aims to establish a structure for joint defence and mutual support between the signatory parties, which may represent a regional competitor to the French-backed ECOWAS group.

The three countries share many things in common, including the security challenges posed by armed rebel groups in their territories that are linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

They also face similar diplomatic crises, as their relations with their neighbours and with the West have become strained due to coups within all three countries.

Economics, France's last bastion in the Sahel

Despite the humiliation for France in Niger, Ismail Hamoudi, Professor of Political Science at Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University in Morocco, notes that Paris still has a strong influence in the region.

Hamoudi explains that many West African countries still use the CFA franc, which provides Paris with the ability to control the financial market, economy, and trade in these states, in addition to the fact that French banks and companies are the primary economic actors in most West African countries.

France is facing competition from other international powers that present themselves as an alternative to Paris in Africa, “but changing the equation requires more time,” according to Hamoudi, who believes that Paris “will not surrender” easily to African leaders or to its competing powers.

“It realises that any laxity in protecting its economic, political, and cultural influence in West and North Africa means the end of France as an international power,” he said.

"France is facing competition from other international powers that present themselves as an alternative to Paris in Africa, but changing the equation requires more time"

For his part, political analyst Tarek Ziad Wehbe points out that US economic ambitions shape its policy of displacing France from its traditional position of influence, but that Washington is also “wrestling with the Chinese economic and Russian military giants” over their role in the region.

The international relations researcher, who resides in France, adds that America “does not want to give the opportunity to any Chinese or Russian expansion that would make the African continent a human and political bloc hostile to Washington".

But while some reports indicate that developments in Niger have caused new tensions in the American-French alliance, Wehbe seems more optimistic.

France is accustomed to what America is doing, he told TNA, and the two countries have learned to “share contracts,” so “there is no dispute as long as the two countries are determined to stop the Chinese and Russian advances".

Abdolgader Mohamed Ali is an Eritrean journalist and researcher in African Affairs.

Follow him on Twitter: @AbdolgaderAli