In the past week, Israel began a long-threatened invasion of Rafah despite warnings from the US and major allies.
Israeli forces seized control of the Rafah Crossing, previously controlled by Egypt, and are threatening a full ground invasion even though at least a million Palestinians are sheltering in Rafah.
The inescapable choice to prioritise domestic security, humanitarian assistance or diplomatic relationships is an agonising one which Egypt’s leadership must make.
“The Israeli ground invasion of Rafah is a breaking point where Egypt can and maybe has to change its historical non-interventionist post-1979 peace treaty policy,” Sherif Mohyeldeen, a specialist on Egyptian cross-border issues, told The New Arab.
Egyptians are angry at both the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding on their doorstep and Israel’s blatant breach of the 1979 Camp David Accords, putting pressure on their leader to finally take firm action seven months into the conflict.
Mediation talks in Cairo have failed and Israel’s invasion of Rafah threatens to destabilise its relationship with Egypt. Even President Biden commented: “It’s causing problems with Egypt, which I have worked very hard to make sure we have a relationship with and help”.
Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Sunday that Egypt will support South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ, breaking away from the neutral stance Cairo maintained during the mediation talks.
Closer to Rafah, leaders of the Bedouin community in Sinai have been called on for support by Egypt’s military. The Bedouins of Sinai have a complex relationship with both Israel and Egypt’s leadership, and their role in the Rafah-Israel-Egypt crisis shouldn’t be understated.
Egyptian anger
Across social media, Egyptians have voiced outrage at the devastating humanitarian toll of a full-ground invasion and Israel’s takeover of the Rafah Crossing, a symbolic infraction against Egypt’s sovereignty.
Egyptians have expressed anger that their grandfathers went to war in Sinai in vain and also that Egypt faced ostracisation from the wider Arab world to sign the Camp David Accords for nothing.
Small protests have sprung up across the nation and, on the same day Israel took control of the crossing, a Israeli-Canadian businessman was killed in Alexandria.
An outlawed militant organisation the ‘Vanguards of Liberation - the Group of Martyr Mohamed Salah’ claimed responsibility for the murder.
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“There are many indicators of Egyptian popular anger against the recent Israeli escalations and taking over the Rafah crossing,” Mohyeldeen said.
As well as caring about the devastating humanitarian disaster, Egyptians widely support the Palestinian cause. That makes any kind of exodus of Palestinians into Sinai, or agreement with the Israeli government, unthinkable.
“Even if this influx of Palestinian people into Sinai has been somehow agreed between regimes - including the Egyptian regime - it would look very awful to Egyptian people that the Egyptian decision maker had to accept this and not defend Egyptian national interests,” Mohyeldeen said.
Any kind of adherence to the Israeli plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai would have terrible consequences for the legacy of Egypt’s leader and, more immediately, would mean a huge loss of face in the eyes of Egyptians.
Sinai buffer
As a buffer area between Gaza and Egypt, Sinai is expected to play a crucial role in unfolding events. The Egyptian army has turned to Sinai tribes for support in stopping a mass influx of Palestinians entering the country, but it remains to be seen whether the Sinai Bedouin would cooperate with the regime.
One man may be key to securing the region - the powerful tribal leader Ibrahim al-Organi, regarded as the richest and best-connected man in Sinai.
“He’s a member of the powerful Tarabin tribe and rose to extreme prominence in power regarding the border crossing and providing protection,” Matthew Sparks, an anthropologist and historian of Sinai, told The New Arab. “It seems to me that he and Sisi are very close and keen on working together.”
Al-Organi is also in charge of the Union of Sinai Tribes, an ad-hoc militia of regional Bedouin tribes, formed to fight against the Islamic State (IS) a decade ago.
“As long as he can continue to bridge the gap between Sisi’s government and the tribes, they’ll continue to work together,” Sparks said.
But proceedings may not be too straightforward, given the fragmented nature of the Bedouin tribes across Sinai and their historic reticence to commit to one external regime.
“The Bedouin have never been too keen to work too closely with the [Egyptian] government,” Sparks added. “They've always tried to keep themselves at arm’s length from the state.”
Some Sinai Bedouin factions may have allegiance to Israel following the occupation of Sinai from 1967 to 1982.
“The Sinai Bedouin in general are more amicable to Israel, especially because of the tourism and just because of historic ties,” said Sparks.
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Domestic security
The regime’s leadership is under pressure to protect national security and prevent an influx of Palestinians from entering Sinai, which would liquidate the Palestinian cause and threaten hard-fought-for peace.
There are also concerns that senior Hamas members may flee to the mountainous Sinai and draw Egypt into a long-security battle, similar to the fighting with IS a decade ago.
“At this late point, after seven months of the Israeli genocide against Palestinians, Egypt has to take its own side and try to stop any Israeli ground invasion of Rafah, because it risks Egyptian national security,” Mohyeldeen said.
Any action requires a difficult balancing act, but at this stage, Egypt may be unable to continue its position as a neutral negotiator.
“The Egyptian decision maker would be in a very tight position to take action,” Mohyeldeen said. “Otherwise, it will have very serious impacts on the country overall.”
By pushing back Palestinians fleeing Rafah into Sinai, Egypt’s regime will be seen as contributing to the devastating humanitarian crisis.
But by allowing Palestinians to settle in Sinai, acquiescing to the wishes of the Israeli leadership, Egypt will be seen as betraying the Palestinian cause.
“Sisi has to balance security issues with his kind of pan-Arabist support for the Palestinian people,” Sparks said. “And that resonates much more with Egyptians.”
Lara Gibson is a Cairo-based journalist closely following Egypt's economic and political developments.
Follow her on Twitter: @lar_gibson