Will Burhan's assassination attempt derail Geneva peace talks on Sudan's war?

The assassination attempt on the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has raised questions about who was behind it, what its goals were, and to what extent it could impact Sudan's war - especially with US-led peace talks in Geneva around the corner.

If they go ahead, the upcoming negotiations, which will be hosted by both Switzerland and Saudi Arabia on 14 August, will be the first major effort in months to get the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to sit together.

Since the war erupted in Sudan more than a year and three months ago, bringing the country close to collapse, there have been multiple mediation attempts, the most prominent of which were the Jeddah negotiations which took place early into the war.

However, while positive steps were agreed upon at Jeddah, they were not implemented, and the two warring parties have not returned to direct negotiations a second time, despite many attempts by external parties to bring this about.

The RSF accepted the US invitation to the August talks soon after they were proposed, with the army tentatively and conditionally following suit on 30 July – shortly before the failed attempt on Burhan's life, after which the army leader said he would not be attending.

The attack took place at a graduation ceremony at the Gebeit army base, about 100 km (62 miles) from the army's de facto capital Port Sudan in Sudan's Red Sea state.

It was carried out by two drones and left five dead, including a colonel, as well as a number of injured according to an army statement, although the death toll is believed to have risen since then.

Burhan's bodyguards managed to evacuate him unscathed, and he later insisted on completing the graduation ceremony and gave a speech vowing not to lay his weapons down until the country was cleansed of "rebels and mercenaries".

The army chief stressed last Wednesday that "the battle with the enemy is ongoing" and pledged not to surrender or negotiate with them.

He also reiterated that he welcomed peace negotiations provided they involved all segments of the people as well as the armed movements participating in the battle. However he conditioned his participation in talks on mediating actors recognising the Sudanese government's sovereignty over Sudan, and that the RSF implement what was agreed in the Jeddah negotiations by leaving civilians' homes.

Some see the Sudanese government's reluctance to accept the invitation to the talks as being due to a perceived lack of seriousness from the US after it failed to pressure the RSF to implement measures agreed in the Jeddah talks.

However, political analyst and editor of the Al-Intibaha newspaper, Bakhari Bashir, told Al Jazeera that he believes the Sudanese government may alter its position and ultimately accept the US invitation, with both sides making concessions.

Strikingly, neither Burhan's address nor the army’s statement explicitly accused any party of being responsible for the Gebeit attack, including the RSF. The RSF itself has remained silent about the incident and has not claimed responsibility, contrary to how it has acted on previous occasions.

However, many are drawing links between the assassination attempt and the US call for the two warring parties to attend face-to-face negotiations in Switzerland, which aim to secure a ceasefire deal, facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid, and protect civilians.

Some see the incident as sending a message to Burhan not to attend the negotiations, while others see it as a means of pressuring him to go.

Assassination attempt on Burhan

Ex-MP Ahmed Al-Tayeb Al-Makabrabi told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, The New Arab's Arabic-language sister edition, that the RSF had announced on day one of the war that it was seeking to kill Burhan.

He noted that the most recent attempt was preceded by several others, including with drones that attacked the city of Ad Damar in River Nile State a few days ago.

Makabrabi alleged that the RSF is intent on carrying out its plan with help from the countries providing it with intelligence, advanced weaponry, and technical support to operate it. Moreover, the Sudanese state and army leadership know this and also believe that the RSF does not in reality want peace, or a ceasefire, nor do the countries and organisations sponsoring the negotiations, the MP claimed.

Egypt, the UAE, the African Union, and the UN are due to attend the talks as observers.

Makabrabi added that the response of the sponsoring and mediating countries - silence and a failure to condemn the assassination attempt – shows that their goal is not a ceasefire or achieving peace in the country.

Kamal Boulad is a member of the General Secretariat of the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces, also known as Taqaddum - the largest anti-war coalition in Sudan. He considered the incident to be "a repercussion of war", but acknowledged that it would "further complicate the already complex military and political reality".

This is because it occurred in Gebeit in Red Sea State, which has come to be the de facto centre of the government and army during the war.

"What is most significant about the incident is it targeted the army commander at a time all attention was focussed on the military and RSF delegations attending the Geneva negotiations - to stop the war and save lives from severe famine, which is what all Sudanese, who have tasted the bitterness of war, wish for […] except for the Islamist elements which support the war."

According to Boulad, this group "is using the war to exert political leverage to push for its return to power, whatever the losses for the Sudanese people, in terms of lives lost, and of infrastructure, which has been devastated and sent the country back decades".

Boulad continued: "Wherever the two drones came from and whatever the motive, we must focus on what is most important: stopping this pointless war, returning to negotiations, sparing the Sudanese more bloodshed, and listening to the voice of human conscience".

Osman Abdul Rahman Suleyman, the official spokesman for Tamazuj, one of the movements that signed the Juba peace agreement with the government in 2020, rejected claims the RSF was responsible for the Gebeit attack, attributing it instead to internal disputes within the army.

He said the assassination attempt would likely affect ongoing work to bring the military and the RSF together in Geneva under US sponsorship and might delay the army confirming it would participate.

Suleyman believes the main goal of the incident was to hinder the negotiations. But even if Burhan agreed to attend talks, he said, this wouldn't be enough, "unless Burhan makes the courageous decision to get rid of the influence of the Islamist movement, an arm of the former regime within the army".

El Tahir Sati, chief editor of Al-Youm al-Tali newspaper, said that the drone attack wasn't only an assassination attempt against Burhan, but also a message that nowhere is safe.

He explained that the attack in Red Sea State, one of the safest states and why the government had transferred its headquarters to its capital Port Sudan, reflected this.

"If the government is unable to secure its headquarters, what about other neighbouring states where the RSF militia is spread out?"

Sati thinks the RSF are the primary beneficiaries from what happened "because the incident achieved a huge media goal for it, which isn't easy to do, even if it didn't end with Burhan's assassination".

He concluded that "the most important message" for Burhan is that even though you head the Sovereign Council, and lead the army, "you're still not safe or far from the RSF's line of fire", and he hoped that Burhan would absorb the message and address this issue by putting an end to the RSF both militarily and politically.  

Meanwhile, regarding the talks, political science professor Munzoul Assal, believes they represent the most serious step the US has taken to date in its engagement with the war in Sudan.

He believes this is due to the US desire to achieve success on a foreign policy issue before the upcoming presidential elections, and Sudan is one of the arenas for such a breakthrough - in the form of a ceasefire - which the US is targeting.

He also thinks that the dangers of Sudan's war continuing for neighbouring countries, including US allies in the region, is a decisive factor in the US move.

There are reasons to be hopeful of success, the most important being US sponsorship, but Assal anticipated the negotiations wouldn't be easy "because the issues are very complex, and the longer the war continues, the more complicated and entrenched the parties' positions become".

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition with additional reporting. To read the original article click here.

Translated by Rose Chacko

This article is taken from our Arabic sister publication, Al-Araby Al Jadeed and mirrors the source's original editorial guidelines and reporting policies. Any requests for correction or comment will be forwarded to the original authors and editors.

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