Why Yahya Sinwar's death won't change Israel's war strategy in Gaza

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on 16 October came as a shock to many, even catching Israeli officials off-guard.

His killing, following the assassination of his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, was touted by some as a pivotal moment in a brutal war that has devastated Gaza for over a year.

Images and videos reportedly showing Sinwar's final moments at a house in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood, west of Rafah near the Egyptian border, sparked strong reactions on social media platforms.

Israel had listed Sinwar as its most wanted man in Gaza, holding him accountable as the mastermind behind the 7 October Hamas-led attack on Israel, known as the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. The attack, which claimed the lives of nearly 1,200 Israelis, severely damaged the reputation of Tel Aviv’s security and intelligence agencies.

Perhaps the most pressing among Israel’s declared goals in the brutal war that it has waged on Gaza, which has so far claimed more than 42,000 Palestinian lives, including 17,000 children, was the eradication of Hamas. 

Now that Sinwar is dead, numerous questions have arisen regarding potential shifts in Israel's strategy and how this might affect the trajectory of the conflict.

Nihad Abu Ghosh, a researcher in Israeli affairs, argues that Israel’s strategy toward Gaza, or any other front, will not shift significantly after Sinwar’s death.

"Israel’s problem is not with individuals like Sinwar, nor solely with Hamas as a movement. Instead, Israel is pursuing a broader plan to dismantle the Palestinian cause itself," he told The New Arab, adding that Israel’s stated goals in the war are “misleading”.

The real objective, he argues, is to make Gaza uninhabitable and to annex as much land as possible.

"Regarding the much-anticipated prisoner exchange deal, some Israeli voices suggested that Sinwar's death removed a significant obstacle,” he added. “But this is part of Israel's disinformation campaign.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains the primary impediment to a deal, according to Abu Ghosh, with the Israeli leader “buying time” to wage war against all members of the “axis of resistance,” believing that “military force alone can allow him to redraw the map of the Middle East”.

While regional and international pressure to finalise a prisoner exchange deal could increase in the near future, “Sinwar was probably the most capable leader for making decisive choices within Hamas, including potential concessions,” the analyst said.

Any successor is likely to adhere strictly to the red lines Sinwar established, which will make it “more challenging” for Israel to obtain the significant concessions it seeks in the deal proposed by Palestinian resistance groups, he explained.

As for the overall conflict, indications suggest that the war, though it may ebb and flow, will not come to an end anytime soon, even after Sinwar's death. This view is shared by Ahmed Awad, the head of the Centre for Jerusalem Studies.

According to Awad, Israel is seeking what it calls "absolute victory" and is determined to “uproot Hamas” or force its surrender, secure the release of hostages, and depopulate northern Gaza.

“The idea of mass displacement has been central to Israel’s strategy since the outset of the war,” he said. “Halting the war could destabilise Israel’s coalition government or even threaten its existence.”

The current Israeli government is built on the constant use of military force, and its right-wing factions are pushing for continued aggression, he added.

“The Israeli government's ongoing war efforts show no signs of stopping, particularly in light of escalating strikes across various fronts,” Awad told The New Arab. “The most recent development was Hezbollah's launch of a drone targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence in Caesarea.” 

According to Awad, Israel is currently not on any path toward negotiation. Any real negotiations with Hamas would “spell the downfall” of Netanyahu's government. 

“For the past year, Israel has avoided negotiations, using them as a tool to placate public anger or buy time to achieve tactical military gains,” he explained.

“Netanyahu operates under a hardline belief that force alone will achieve his objectives without the need for concessions, a mentality that significantly hinders progress on a prisoner exchange deal.”

Awad also predicts that Israel may attempt to withhold Sinwar’s body as leverage in a future exchange deal, though it would be a symbolic gesture, as Israel is unlikely to meet Hamas’s conditions, such as halting the war and withdrawing from Gaza.

In announcing Sinwar's death, Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's commitment to continuing the war, stating that his death marks "the first day after Hamas". He vowed that the group would no longer govern Gaza.

Political analyst Antoine Shalhat notes that Sinwar’s assassination could reinforce the Israeli belief that military pressure can decisively defeat Hamas and the resistance. 

“This sentiment is reflected in the statements of political and military leaders, especially Netanyahu,” he told The New Arab. “As a result, internal Israeli pressure is unlikely to subside anytime soon, even with growing calls for negotiation following Sinwar’s death.”

Yet, Netanyahu continues to portray the Hamas leadership as the main obstacle to reaching a deal, according to Shalhat, who argues that a shift toward a prisoner exchange deal and a de-escalation of military pressure could occur under two conditions: a dramatic shift in battlefield dynamics or a forceful intervention by the United States.

“However, such American pressure seems unlikely before the next presidential election, and the complex military and political landscape, especially concerning Lebanon and an increasingly tense Iran, suggests that Israel will continue its war, bolstered by unwavering US support,” he continued.

According to Hamas leader Mahmoud Mardawi, Israel has set multiple goals and pursued them through various means, but without success.

“Achieving these goals is particularly difficult because they are the product of political compromises within Netanyahu’s governing coalition,” he told The New Arab. “The prime minister’s main focus is to stay in power and avoid the post-war investigations that will undoubtedly scrutinise Israel’s failure to prevent the 7 October attacks.” 

To this end, Netanyahu has capitulated to the demands of the religious nationalist faction, which serves as a safeguard against the collapse of his government, and whose conditions prevent him from pursuing political manoeuvres, he added.

One of Israel's top priorities is the recovery of captives, and despite numerous attempts, Mardawi notes that Israel has successfully recovered less than two per cent of its captives through military operations, with many even killed in the process. 

“In contrast, prisoner exchange deals have historically been more effective in securing the release of larger numbers,” he said.

Despite the efforts of mediators through summits and meetings held in Paris, Rome, Doha, and Cairo to bridge the gap between the conflicting sides, Netanyahu has consistently thwarted any chance of reaching an agreement, according to Mardawi.

“Time and again, he would send a negotiating delegation, granting it certain powers in the war council, but would quickly recall the delegation, stripping it of the authority necessary to finalise any deal,” he explained, adding that this pattern of obstruction highlights Netanyahu’s deep reluctance to engage in substantive negotiations, particularly with Hamas.

“Instead, he has used the appearance of diplomacy as a tactical delay, all while maintaining a hardline stance,” he added.

“His unwillingness to compromise reflects his belief that military force is the only viable solution to Israel’s security challenges, which has become a hallmark of his leadership throughout the conflict.”

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.