Why Israel's strike on Yemen will not deter the Houthis

The Houthis' overnight drone attack on Tel Aviv, Israel from 2,000 km away on 19 July marked a new stage in Middle East tensions.

The event underscored how Yemen’s Houthis have emerged as a significant threat within the Red Sea region, having breached Israel's security perimeter after firing hundreds of missiles and drones.

The Houthi strike also reinforces the group's role as another key actor in the clashes between Israel and Iran-aligned factions, and increases the risk of further attacks. Following the incident, a Houthi spokesperson stated, "we are prepared for any Israeli reaction against Yemen".

This expectation materialised when Israel's air force heavily bombarded the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah on 20 July, targeting civilian infrastructure. Six people were killed, at least 87 were injured, and huge fires were ignited that could still be seen burning the next day.

Since Hodeidah’s port is a crucial entry point for much of Yemen's goods, experts warned the attack, and further strikes, could hinder aid to Yemen’s population, which is already heavily dependent on international assistance following years of war.

“The target of the strike does more to hurt the average Yemeni than the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks on the Red Sea or Israel,” said Adam Clements, a retired US Army attaché for Yemen.

From Israel’s perspective, the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv, which killed one and injured several others, further exposed gaps in its security, as the Houthi drone slipped through its radar system.

Israel’s response illustrates its efforts to re-establish deterrence after the breach, ‘sending a message’ not only towards the Houthis but also to other Iran-backed factions across the region.

Yemen is now the sixth country Israel has attacked since the Gaza war erupted on 7 October, joining a list that includes Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

Growing Houthi strength

Israel’s raid was among the more brutal attacks on Yemen, even compared to the numerous US-UK joint operations conducted since January to deter the faction’s disruption of international Red Sea trade since December 2023.

The Houthis have presented this as a form of ‘sanctions’ on Israel in response to its brutal war on Gaza.

The group has been a thorn in the side of Israel, putting extra pressure on it alongside other Iran-backed factions. Israel’s Eilat commercial port has gone bankrupt following Houthi attacks, while it announced on 21 July it would lay off around half of its workers, demonstrating the group’s disruptive potential.

Israel’s decision to attack Yemen, however, may be a net win for the Houthis, as they’ve further bolstered their popularity among Yemenis and the Middle East’s pro-Palestinian populations. Domestically, it will likely help the Houthis cement their influence in the territory they have seized throughout Yemen’s war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the attack on Hodeidah aimed to block the Houthis from receiving Iran-supplied weapons. Yet there are doubts that Israel will be able to prevent the Houthis from conducting further attacks.

“Israel's retaliation against the Houthis will not deter the Houthis from hitting it again. Instead, it gives the Houthis a propaganda gain & a pretext to further crackdown on dissent,” Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, wrote on X.

Following the Israeli raid, a Houthi spokesperson said it would only "increase the determination of the Yemeni people". The group has regularly staged marches with millions of Yemenis in the capital Sana’a every Friday to display solidarity with the Palestinians and rally people behind the Houthis’ rule in Yemen.

Amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions in the region, these clashes also signal the Houthis’ evolution into an influential regional actor, bolstered by increasing Iranian support.

The use of what the Israeli military identified as an upgraded Iranian-made Samad-3 model, referred to by the Houthis as “Yafa” (named after the Palestinian city upon which Tel Aviv was constructed), highlights their growing capabilities.

It represents an extra addition to the Houthis’ arsenal, which already holds highly sophisticated Iranian-made drones, as well as surface-to-surface missiles, anti-ship missiles, and loitering munitions, as well as reportedly hypersonic missiles.

These assets have helped the Houthis rapidly transform into a greater regional threat, one that will be able to assert its influence on Yemen and threaten Red Sea trade and Israel for some time.

Integrating into the Iran-led axis

Over time, the Houthis have grown significantly, having secured much territory since the 2015 Yemen war against the Saudi Arabia-led coalition after initially starting as a small revivalist movement formed in 1992.

Iranian support has played a notable role in empowering the Houthis, and this alignment has deepened in the past nine months. As Israel has continued pummelling Gaza, along with almost-daily skirmishes with Hezbollah along the Lebanon-Israel border, the Houthis have now opened a new front in coordination with its allies within the anti-Israel and anti-US self-styled 'Axis of Resistance'.

By strengthening ties with Iranian allies in other regional contexts, the Houthis have signalled an unprecedented degree of strategic coordination and cooperation between Iran-armed allies.

“This joint escalation isn't solely a response to Israeli airstrikes against South Lebanon last night, which caused civilian casualties, but also appears to be a strategic response to Netanyahu's attempts to torpedo the cease-fire talks ahead of his visit to the US next week,” Amal Saad, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, wrote on X following the Houthi attack.

Nabil Al-Bukiri, an Istanbul-based Yemeni researcher, told The New Arab, “There’s no doubt that the Houthis have emerged as a power in the region, largely owing to their alliance with Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces”.

Al-Bukiri added that the latest attack signals how the Houthis have solidified their position within the Iran-led regional axis against Israel, and Tehran’s support has made attacks on Israel and Red Sea trade possible.

"Israel's retaliation against the Houthis will not deter the Houthis from hitting it again. Instead, it gives the Houthis a propaganda gain"

As mentioned, the Houthis have their own internal ambitions and may be less dependent on Tehran compared to other allies, like Hezbollah and Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

However, the Houthis have proactively sought to position themselves among the 'axis of resistance', including bilaterally with Hezbollah and Iraq-based proxies of Iran.

Notably, the Houthis have cemented ties with Iranian-backed factions in Iraq on their own accord, such as through bilateral visits. Showcasing those ties, the Houthis claimed on 2 July that they had targeted Haifa in Israel through a joint attack with Iraq-based groups, after the Houthis previously targeted Israeli ships in Haifa’s port.  

“It is not surprising that Tehran would promote synergies among its allies, but what is striking is the Houthis’ rush to declare bilateral cooperation so publicly, given their relatively new status as a regional military actor,” Adnan al-Jabarni wrote in the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.

His report cited sources who said that the Houthis had strengthened ties with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iraq-based allies in March this year to coordinate regional naval operations amid the Gaza war.

Future implications

There is clearly a consolidating alliance among Iran’s allies which may operate partly without Tehran’s direct oversight, which analysts have suggested reflects a more autonomous yet cohesive axis.

The Houthis certainly are looking to play a role in propelling attacks on Israel. Indeed, the faction has warned of a “huge response” to Israel’s attack on Hodeidah, indicating the faction’s willingness to continue attacks, whether directly against Israel or in the Red Sea.

On 21 July, the Israeli army said it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile from Yemen, which the Houthis conducted in response to Israel’s bombing of Hodeidah.

Israel may look to retaliate against any likely Houthi attacks in the future. Yet as with the Saudi-led airstrikes on Yemen from 2015 until the UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022, the Houthis have shown they can largely withstand airstrikes – or even benefit from them.

Even if there are further clashes and Israeli attacks, which now shouldn’t be ruled out, it’s clearly doubtful that Tel Aviv can succeed where Saudi Arabia, the US, and UK have failed.

Like the rest of Iran’s allies, the intensity of Houthi attacks will likely hinge on whether there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

Yet, as Iran-Israeli tensions have escalated to a new level in the past 10 months, the reality of Houthi attacks may always remain. For now, the faction has clearly solidified itself as an influential actor within the ‘axis of resistance’.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey