Explainer: Why the Erdogan-Putin talks failed to revive the grain deal

Talks between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Monday failed to achieve a breakthrough on reviving the Black Sea grain export deal brokered last year by Turkey and the UN.

The deal, which has allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported via Turkey's Bosphorus Strait, had been considered a lifeline for global food supplies - particularly for countries heavily dependent on Ukrainian imports, and poorer countries most affected by price fluctuations.

Russia had suspended its participation in the deal on 17 July, protesting that Western sanctions had continued to hurt its own exports despite a parallel agreement to facilitate them.

At a press conference after the meeting in the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi on Monday, Putin reiterated that Russia would consider reviving the grain deal,  “as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented.”

"Despite being a NATO ally, Turkey has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, even while supporting Ukraine militarily"

Under the deal, Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN officials had conducted joint inspections to ensure that vessels only carried grains and other agricultural products.

In July, Russia stopped participating in those inspections, as well as scheduling the arrival of new ships at Ukrainian ports.

Turkish President Erdogan, who had previously played a pivotal role in securing the deal alongside the UN, said that Turkey and the UN had worked on a package of suggestions to address Russia's concerns.

“Ukraine needs to especially soften its approaches in order for it to be possible for joint steps to be taken with Russia,” Erdogan said at the press conference following his first face to face meeting with Putin since 2022, in which the two leaders also boasted increased economic ties and pledged to continue cooperation on energy issues.

Ukrainian farmers are the 'real losers'

Despite being a NATO ally, Turkey has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, even while supporting Ukraine militarily.

Recently, Ankara has taken steps that angered Putin – such as allowing five commanders from the Azovstal steel plant to return to Ukraine from Turkey, where they were to remain as part of a prisoner swap deal.

Crucially, Turkey also recently greenlighted Sweden's bid to join NATO and voiced support for Ukraine’s aspirations to join the Western military alliance. 

But any indication that Turkey was pivoting towards the West earlier in the summer evaporated in Sochi, where it was evident Turkey had no intention of relinquishing its balancing act.

“President Erdogan is really trying for this grain deal because he gives great importance to it,” said Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst at the Middle East Institute who also runs the Bosphorus Observer, a consultancy analysing maritime activity on the Turkish Straits.

“It's prestige, access to Africa, there are many angles to it,” he added.

According to data from the UN's Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul, the agreement has allowed nearly 33 million metric tons of foodstuffs to be exported from Ukraine. Although roughly 60 percent of the grain exported from Ukraine was headed for ports in Europe, its final destinations include Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, and Pakistan.

“The impact of the closure on world wheat and maize supplies is less than it was when the war broke out because world grain supplies are improved and unfortunately, Ukraine production has been reduced by about one third since the war began,” Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington told The New Arab.

It is not the first time that Russia threatens to pull out of the deal. Ukraine had previously accused Moscow of “slowly killing” the deal by delaying inspections.

"As the two leaders met in the Black Sea resort, Russia continued to target Ukraine's food-export infrastructure, launching drone attacks on the country's Danube river area"

Figures from the UN's Joint Coordination Centre show that Ukrainian exports had been decreasing even before Russia announced its withdrawal, and were at their lowest in May and June since the deal was first implemented.

Meanwhile, Russia had a record harvest last summer, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects its exports to reach an all-time high in 2022-23.

“The real losers continue to be Ukraine farmers as they must ship grain via more costly routes,” Glauber explained. These include overland routes through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, or through ports on the Danube bordering Romania.

“Russia's continued aggression towards the Danube ports and Odesa continues to roil markets and creates uncertainty for future crop production in Ukraine,” he added.

Grain diplomacy

In Sochi, Erdogan and Putin also mentioned a separate deal to provide one million metric tons of discounted Russian grain to be shipped for free to six African countries after processing in Turkey, with financial support from Qatar.

“Numbers are not frankly impressive,” Isik said, “it's good for Qatari diplomacy, it's good for Turkey having access to the grain as a big grain-milling country, but it's not good for Ukraine and it has no effect on the Ukrainian deal.”

As the two leaders met in the Black Sea resort, Russia continued to target Ukraine's food-export infrastructure, launching drone attacks on the country's Danube river area.

Meanwhile, four ships have so far passed through a 'temporary' Black Sea shipping corridor set up along the western Black Sea coast near Bulgaria and Romania, the latest carrying pig iron and iron concentrate. This is despite Russia's threat that any ship sailing from Ukraine could be treated as a potential military target.

“Russia has no operational ability, not enough trained personnel, to enforce a blockade,” Isik said.

“Russia coming back to the grain deal would let them continue the imaginary scenario they have created. They are implementing a blockade of Ukrainian ports,” he argued, citing that as the reason Russia should eventually come back to a deal.

Among Russia's demands are the readmission of the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the SWIFT payment system, the removal of restrictions on insurance and access to ports for Russian ships and cargo, as well as the resumption of exports of agricultural machinery and spare parts to Russia.

“[The West] is required to find alternative solutions, as food security is a very crucial matter with geopolitical implications,” Diana Galeeva, an academic visitor at Oxford University told The New Arab.

“I believe there will be an alternative deal. But we should wait and see which shape it will take.”

Ylenia Gostoli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Turkey. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict across the Middle East and Europe. Her work on refugees, migration and human trafficking has won awards and grants

Follow her on Twitter: @YleniaGostoli