A recently signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Turkey and Iraq has reignited debates over Ankara’s future role in northern Iraq.
The agreement, focused on military, security, and counter-terrorism cooperation, follows years of tensions over Turkey's military actions against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has long operated from bases in northern Iraq.
While both governments promote the pact as a historic step towards improved bilateral relations, concerns are growing that it could signal increased Turkish influence - or even potential annexation - in the region.
Relations between Turkey and Iraq have always been fraught, marked by periods of cooperation overshadowed by disputes, especially over the PKK's presence in northern Iraq's mountainous regions.
The PKK, a Kurdish guerrilla force formed in the late 1970s, has been fighting for autonomy in Turkey and is labelled a "terrorist" organisation by Turkey, the United States, and the EU.
Turkey’s operations have frequently drawn sharp rebukes from Baghdad, which views them as violations of Iraqi sovereignty.
A central question remains whether Turkey plans to withdraw its forces from Iraqi territory. The MoU, while broad - covering counterterrorism and cross-border crime prevention - does not explicitly mandate the withdrawal of Turkish troops.
This omission has alarmed some observers in Iraq, where many view the ongoing Turkish military presence as an occupation.
A draft of the MoU published by Iraqi Kurdish lawmaker Soran Omar suggested an expectation for Turkey to withdraw and respect Iraq’s sovereignty, but the Turkish government has denied any such provision exists.
"Turkey’s military incursion was supposed to be for a limited range, but now extends nearly 40 kilometres, with permanent bases and checkpoints," Abdul Ghani Ghazban, an Iraqi political observer, told The New Arab.
The inclusion of the Bashiqa camp as a training base further complicates matters.
"The lack of clear withdrawal conditions poses a risk, potentially leading to further incursions near Nineveh province," Ghazban adds.
Drone strikes and rising tensions
The MoU’s inclusion of the Bashiqa camp as a joint training base is particularly contentious. While Iraq has hosted US advisors in the past, the entry of Turkish military advisors is seen by some as a gradual occupation strategy.
"Turkey is a pragmatic state and always prioritises its interests," Ghazban said. "The lack of clear conditions for withdrawal poses a significant risk, potentially leading to further incursions up to the outskirts of Nineveh province."
According to the MoU’s third article, Item C, both states can take suitable measures, as per respective national laws, to deter any activities of propaganda and recruitment for banned groups or terrorist organisations opposing either country.
In a stark illustration of this after signing the security pact, a suspected Turkish drone strike on Friday targeted a vehicle in Sulaimaniyah’s Said Sadiq district killing two female journalists working with Sterk TV, a media outlet close to the PKK.
Karwan Anwar, the head of Sulaimaniyah’s branch of the Kurdistan Journalists Syndicate, expressed concerns to local media outlets that the drone attack on journalists was the first of its kind in the Kurdistan region and will endanger the work of journalists there.
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While the Iraqi government has kept silent on the incident, international rights groups have condemned the killings, with the targeting of journalists considered a war crime under international law.
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has demanded a probe into whether the journalists were targeted for their work. Turkey denies any involvement, but the incident has renewed calls for Ankara to respect Iraqi sovereignty.
The potential for Turkey’s prolonged military presence in Iraq, coupled with the recent killing of journalists, has led to fears of a strategic annexation.
"Unless a significant internal event occurs in Turkey, it is unlikely that the country will alter its policies or withdraw from northern Iraq and Syria," Bahrooz Jaafar, a Kurdish expert, told TNA.
He cites Turkey's economic crisis, with inflation nearing 75% and the lira hitting record lows, as a potential destabilising factor for Erdogan's government, though he remains sceptical about the feasibility of annexing areas like Mosul.
Strategic interests and regional implications
The possibility of annexation looms over discussions concerning Turkey's long-term intentions. The provinces of Mosul, Kirkuk, and Duhok are not only strategically important but also economically valuable due to their oil reserves.
Ankara has historically shown interest in these areas, citing Ottoman-era claims. Concerns over Turkey’s intentions extend beyond Baghdad. In the Kurdistan Region, there is growing unease about Ankara’s influence.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), a dominant force in the region, aligns with Turkey against the PKK. Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, a KDP member, is perceived as aligning the security agreement with his party’s interests.
Meanwhile, Iraq's Shia-majority government remains cautious of Ankara’s manoeuvres, given Turkey’s ties with the Sunni minority and alliances with various Iraqi factions.
Iran, another key player, is closely monitoring these developments. Tehran has substantial interests in the northern provinces, particularly in Kirkuk and Sinjar, where it has influence through militias and political alliances.
An expanded Turkish presence could be seen as a threat to Iran’s strategic depth in Iraq, potentially escalating tensions.
Economic ambitions tied to security
Amid these security concerns, Iraq has launched an ambitious $17 billion project to transform itself into a regional transportation hub linking Europe with the Middle East.
The 1,200-kilometre ‘Route of Development’ project, from the Turkish border to the Gulf, aims to revitalise Iraq's economy by upgrading its road and rail infrastructure.
The project is seen as a cornerstone for a non-oil-based economy, integrating Iraq with its neighbours and contributing to regional stability.
However, the plan's success depends heavily on security and cooperation with neighbouring countries, including Turkey. Ongoing military activities in northern Iraq could undermine the security needed for this project, complicating Iraq's economic outlook.
A high-stakes gamble for Iraq
The Iraqi government’s decision to ban the PKK and dissolve related political parties was a significant concession to Turkey, aimed at reducing tensions and fostering cooperation.
However, this move has not been without consequences. By aligning more closely with Ankara, Baghdad risks alienating Kurdish groups within its borders and stoking resentment among those who view the PKK’s presence as legitimate resistance against Turkish aggression.
The ambiguity surrounding Turkey’s military presence also raises questions about Iraq's sovereignty and diplomatic strategy.
"There are no clear conditions for Turkey’s withdrawal from Iraqi territories after addressing the PKK threat," Ghazban warns.
"This oversight could lead to a prolonged conflict. The Iraqi government primarily aims to secure increased water flow from Turkey and participation in the Route of Development Project, which may benefit Turkey more than Iraq."
The path forward
As the MoU is implemented, the international community will be watching closely. The stakes are high, not just for Turkey and Iraq but also for the broader region. If the agreement enhances security and stability, it could serve as a model for other countries facing similar cross-border issues.
However, unresolved issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity could exacerbate tensions and lead to conflict.
Turkey’s determination to maintain its military presence in Iraq, coupled with vague withdrawal commitments, suggests a long-term strategy.
Success will depend on the response from Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government, and other regional players, including Iran.
Iraq now faces the challenge of balancing its desire for security cooperation with Turkey against the need to protect its sovereignty. Iraq and Turkey stand at a crucial crossroads - one that could shape their relationship for years to come.
Dana Taib Menmy is The New Arab's Iraq Correspondent, writing on issues of politics, society, human rights, security, and minorities.
Follow him on Twitter: @danataibmenmy