IS 'preparing more European attacks' following collapse in Iraq

Europol has warned "the EU is currently witnessing an upward trend in the scale, frequency and impact of terrorist attacks".

According to the most recentEU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT), there were 151 people killed and more than 360 injured as a result of terrorist attacks in the EU in 2015.

In 2016, the bloodshed continued. There are no official statistics yet, but at least 134 people were killed in last year's attacks. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for vast majority of these attacks, calling the perpetrators "soldiers".

Focus shifted to the West

Europol notes that, as the Islamic State group loses ground in the Middle East, it is increasingly focused on attacks in Europe, adopting new tactics. Among the "Islamist terrorist" organisations known to EU law enforcement agencies, IS is one of the few that explicitly target Western countries.

This didn't used to be the case. IS originally focused on seizing territory and local resources. Its involvement in international "terrorism" against the West was limited to attacks on tourists in Muslim countries - eg: Tunisia and Egypt - and inspiring individuals in the West to perpetrate lone-actor attacks.

The first known "official" instruction by IS for its supporters to kill "non-believers" in Western countries was that of Abu Muhammed Al-Adnani, the official spokesperson and senior leader of IS, killed in August 2016 in Aleppo. In a 2014 speech, he talked of "the non-believer" and told IS' "soldiers" to "kill him in any manner or way however it may be. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him".

In another speech, from May 2016, he specifically mentioned that civilian targets must be prioritised.

More recently, in the November edition of its magazine Rumiyah, IS used the Nice attack as an example: "Though being an essential part of modern life, very few actually comprehend the deadly and destructive capability of the motor vehicle and its capacity of reaping large numbers of casualties if used in a premeditated manner."

Relatively complex, these attacks were not particularly expensive to organise, but nevertheless highly effective - Europol

"Instructions" seem to have been heard, as the past two years of attacks show. Moreover, the number of "jihadist" attacks in Europe increased from four in 2014 to 17 in 2015, and the number of arrests for "Jihadist terrorist activities" increased from 395 in 2014 to 667 in 2015.

Emerging modus operandi

The report says the methodology employed in Syria and Iraq may be exported to the EU. The use of suicide bombings in the Paris and Brussels attacks are one example of tactics IS had not used before outside the Middle East.

"Relatively complex, these attacks were not particularly expensive to organise, but nevertheless highly effective and carried out in easily repeatable modi operandi," Europol notes, adding that the attack in Nice showed the devastating potential of a lone-actor, either inspired by or directed by IS.  

Such attacks are extremely hard to prevent, since all one needs to carry it out is a truck and fanatic resolution.

"It is almost impossible to completely rule out the use of these means for perpetration. However, several countries have taken local initiatives to secure large events where big crowds gather. But there will never be a zero risk, unfortunately," Tine Hollevoet, Europol press officer, told The New Arab.

Moreover, until recently, lone actors typically chose symbolic targets such as the police and military, but currently they appear to be increasingly focusing on soft targets. The reason behind such indiscriminate attacks causing mass casualties is the very powerful effect they have on the public in general; and their aim is to seriously intimidate a population.

Europol suggests that IS is not going to stop at this. Other possibilities in the future include the use of car bombs, extortion and kidnappings.

Asked if Europol expects such hypothetical kidnappings to be indiscriminate, or victims targeted according to their wealth, influence or political or other position, Hollevoet said the choice of target would likely be related to the envisaged impact of the extortion/kidnapping and the opportunity. 

So it could be all of the above, depending on the opportunity for the criminals.

	Tributes laid at the site of the attack in Nice [AFP]

From zero to hero

As for personal profiles of those committing armed acts in the EU, Europol describes them as "a particular group of mainly young men who have a criminal past, are or feel discriminated, humiliated and marginalised in society, with some also having mental health issues".

A majority of them are not necessarily very religious: they may not read the Quran and may not be regular visitors of a mosque. They have often radicalised in a very short period, either through the intervention of recruiters or on their own, looking for a sense of social belonging and emotional fulfilment.

They may perceive carrying out an attack as a way to transform themselves from zero to hero. According to Europol, the majority of attacks carried out so far in the name of IS appear to have been not just performed but also dreamed up by individuals who were inspired by IS - rather than working with the group directly.

This self-radicalisation makes them extremely difficult to detect and, by doing so, prevent future tragedies. The fertile ground of Europe's dissastisfied Muslim youth also makes recruiting for the group relatively easy, and provides a large pool of potential "soldiers".

It is therefore of utmost importance, Europol believes, for the EU to recognise the need to work with Muslim communities to firstly prevent radicalisation and secondly detect "dangerous elements" in society.

The emerging Muslim-majority refugee diaspora are people highly vulnerable to radicalisation. Europol believes extremist recruiters will specifically target them. According to the report, a number of IS recruiters are already thought to be travelling through Europe for this very purpose.

Unconfirmed information suggests that German authorities were aware of around 300 recorded recruitment attempts among refugees who were trying to enter Europe by April 2016.

The number of grassroots organisations dedicated to preventing radicalisation is growing, and most are a part of the Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN), which also includes police and prison authorities, and those who are not traditionally involved in counter-terrorism activities, such as teachers, youth workers, civil society representatives, local authorities' representatives and healthcare professionals.

We have to be vigilant, since the threat posed by the so-called Islamic State and returning foreign fighters is likely to persist in the coming years

Heightened surveillance

After the Berlin attack, in which a truck was driven into a Christmas market, German authorities faced a surge of criticism of the security "dysfunctions" that allowed the suspect to escape when he was known as a dangerous suspect.

Chancellor Merkel went on to order a review of security services and regulations. But it will be extremely hard for any European security agency to prevent future terrorist activity, as officers struggle against the logistical impossibility of observing hundreds of suspects - who may have yet to commit a crime - around the clock, while citizens enjoy stringent privacy laws.

In the future, the challenge will only grow, with an increasing number of people deemed worthy of surveillance. Intelligence suggests, Europol reports, that IS has also put together teams in Syria which are sent to Europe tasked with carrying out attacks.

At least 10 deadly attacks against Westerners have been directed or coordinated by this special unit dedicated to exporting terror abroad, according to a former IS fighter interviewed by The New York Times. Also, estimates from some intelligence services indicate several dozen people directed by IS may be currently present in Europe with a capability to commit attacks.

Another security problem is going to be the radicalised Europeans who have joined IS in the conflict area, counted in the thousands. Their en masse or even sporadic return would represent a long-term and highly difficult security challenge for the EU.

Those who are successful in returning pose a serious threat, Europol warns.

"All the concerned Member States will of course monitor these returnees as much as possible. For that they can use their national and European databases, like SIS II (Schengen Information System), EIS (Europol Information System) and the different theme-related focal points within Europol," Hollevoet said.

Gilles de Kerchove, EU Counter-terrorism Coordinator, commented: "We have to be vigilant, since the threat posed by the so-called Islamic State and returning foreign fighters is likely to persist in the coming years. These people are trained to use explosives and firearms and they have been indoctrinated by the jihadist ideology. An effective response requires a comprehensive approach and long term commitment."

And while the primary responsibility in the fight against armed groups and individuals will always lie with Europe's governments - which, obviously, are not prone to disclosing many of their security details - there will be an increasing need for cooperation on the EU level. Terrorism knows no borders, and neither should the fight against it.

Stasa Salacanin is a freelance journalist who has written extensively on Middle Eastern affairs, trade and political relations, Syria and Yemen, terrorism and defence.