As Turkey heads back to the polls on 31 March for nationwide local elections, Istanbul is set to emerge as a major battleground that could set the tone of Turkish politics for years to come.
The race in the megacity of 15 million will see the incumbent mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) try to hold on for a second term after a resounding victory in 2019.
His main challenger is Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate Murat Kurum, a young, technocratic figure that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes will whisk voters away from Imamoglu - one of the embattled opposition's most popular figures.
Widely regarded as a frontrunner for the nation's highest office in the 2028 general election, Imamoglu's campaign represents not only a bid for re-election but also a stepping stone towards broader political aspirations.
“Istanbul is a test for Imamoglu's political future, and at the moment Imamoglu is the most viable candidate for the next presidential election,” Salim Cevik, a fellow at the Centre for Applied Turkish Studies at SWP Berlin told The New Arab.
"Istanbul's results have more meaning than just a local election. They will shape the future of the opposition."
At the last mayoral election in June 2019, Imamoglu won Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, by a landslide after the AKP contested the result of the original election held in March that year and asked for a rerun, alleging irregularities.
The strategy backfired and Imamoglu, who had narrowly won that first election as leader of a broad opposition coalition, got an even larger share of the vote by running a positive campaign under the slogan “her sey guzel olacak” (everything will be fine). It was a major blow to president Erdogan, who began his career in Istanbul, and to his AK Party which had run the city for a quarter of a century.
But in Turkey's May 2023 general election, a once again united opposition front led by the CHP and their candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu failed to capitalise on that political momentum. Despite facing a biting economic crisis and grappling with the aftermath of a devastating earthquake just three months prior, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured his re-election with 52 percent of the vote.
“Opposition voters are really disillusioned and demoralised after their candidates' defeat in 2023 and we're not going to have any other scheduled elections for four and a half years,” Berk Esen, associate professor of politics at Sabanci University, told the New Arab.
“This is really the last chance in a long while to send a message to Erdogan and if possible to actually stop him, for instance, from amending the constitution yet another time,” Esen argues.
According to Turkey’s constitution – amended in a 2017 referendum which also created the current presidential system - presidents can hold a maximum of two terms in office.
Earlier in March, President Erdogan – who has been at the helm of Turkey as prime minister and president for more than two decades - announced the coming local polls would be his “finale” - merely pointing out his ineligibility for another term in office under the current constitution.
The opposition and other observers have noted that this is not the first time Erdogan has made similar statements, and even government-aligned media point out that one way for Erdogan to extend his current term would be to call for an early election.
The absence of a united opposition front - which proved pivotal in securing Imamoglu's 2019 triumph - introduces an element of uncertainty, potentially fragmenting the opposition vote.
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This year, the nationalist IYI Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) – Turkey's third-largest and successor to the HDP, which faces a ban - have fielded their own candidates.
However, both Kurdish and nationalist voters in Istanbul are likely to engage in tactical voting, sticking with their own party's candidates at the district while casting their votes for Imamoglu for the mayoral seat. Recent polls suggest a neck-and-neck race between Imamoglu and AKP's Kurum.
“In sharp contrast to 2019 where a formal alliance structure was necessary to persuade both the Turkish nationalist and Kurdish voters to vote for Ekrem Imamoglu, I think on the basis of his strong performance [in the past five years] he could expect to draw support from both of these constituencies despite the fact that these two parties are going to nominate candidates of their own,” Esen says.
Erdogan's candidate, Murat Kurum, strategically positioned as a technocratic figure and notably younger than Imamoglu, aims to resonate with voters seeking an energetic alternative against the backdrop of Turkey's economic challenges - including high inflation and currency devaluation, which are disproportionately felt in Istanbul. Erdogan has fully endorsed his campaign and is set to hold a joint rally with Kurum on March 24.
By contrast, Imamoglu has been running his own campaign and appears alone on the election posters and banners that are ubiquitous on the streets of Istanbul, rather than alongside CHP party leader Ozgur Ozel.
“[Imamoglu] always maintains a healthy distance with his party,” Cevik says.
“Of course, he's a member of the CHP, he always defends his party,” he adds, “ but his personality is way ahead of the party [in terms of popularity]”. Imamoglu tends to appeal to a wider cross-section of voters than his own party does. Should he lose, he is likely to eye the chairmanship of the party – but this could also alienate some voters.
“The biggest problem in last year's election was that the alliance was at the elite level, not at the level of the masses,” Cevik says. “Imamoglu's success would mean that he can carry that alliance to the masses. So that's very important.”
Ylenia Gostoli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Turkey. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict across the Middle East and Europe. Her work on refugees, migration, and human trafficking has won awards and grants.
Follow her on Twitter: @YleniaGostoli