French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day visit to Morocco this week comes amid France’s bid to mend ties following the recognition in July of Rabat’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region.
A royal letter last month inviting the French president to the country by Morocco’s King Mohammed VI aimed to rectify three years of tense ties over Paris’ ambiguous stance over Western Sahara and attempts to reconcile with Algeria, which saw cancelled trips in 2023 and the frosty treatment of Macron by Rabat.
In 2023, France halved the number of visas issued to Moroccans, with Paris also accusing Morocco of involvement in an espionage scandal. Rabat, meanwhile, refused to accept French aid after an earthquake that killed almost 3,000 Moroccans and displaced nearly 400,000.
Amid France’s loss of influence in Africa, what does Macron hope to (re)gain and what does Morocco now see as the political lynchpin for the “positive horizons for the two countries” mentioned in King Mohammed VI’s invitation letter?
Balancing former colonies
Morocco and Algeria are former French colonies that gained independence from France in 1956 and 1962 respectively.
As an oil-dry kingdom, Morocco’s Mohammed VI is Commander of the Faithful, while Algeria became a republic after a brutal war for independence against France.
France’s access to Algerian gas is vital and in 2022 represented between 8-9% of all gas exported to France. However, France’s influence in Africa has been waning at a time when Algeria itself is losing influence in the Sahel.
As a result, building bridges with Algeria without burning those with Morocco has become French President Emmanuel Macron’s “diplomatic mission impossible”.
France’s recent recognition of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara region may not threaten gas exports from Algiers, which are tied up by long-term contracts that are difficult to terminate, but reveal Morocco’s increasing political clout after signing a normalisation agreement with Israel.
Morocco and the Abraham Accords
Since the 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords between Morocco and Israel, the kingdom has gained increased confidence among allies, despite the unpopularity of normalisation domestically and fears that Israel’s war in Gaza will make future deals increasingly difficult.
Rabat’s normalisation with Israel has strengthened its sovereign claims to the Western Sahara. Making peace with a major US ally bolstered Morocco’s confidence in its autonomy plan, with US recognition of Moroccan claims “over the entire Western Sahara” confirmed by Trump days before Morocco signed the accords.
Complementing US support for a region with rich fishing banks, phosphates, and potential offshore oil reserves is access to Israeli security equipment, with ties blossoming in security and defence.
This has included contracts for up to 250 Israeli-made defence drones to be produced in Morocco and the promise of access to Israeli surveillance satellites, which could further tip the scales in Rabat’s favour in the Western Sahara.
Such gains have allowed Rabat to pressure Paris into recognising Morocco’s control over the Western Sahara at a time when France has lost influence in other parts of Africa.
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From the Western Sahara to Morocco and Africa
France’s colonial past has created much resentment across Africa, with states across the African continent considering relations with Moscow rather than Paris.
Macron’s 2023 tour of Africa was met with protests and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi criticised the French president for France’s paternalistic tone during a live April press conference.
Tshisekedi also walked out of a Francophone summit held this month in Paris, symbolising France’s waning prestige as African states also withdraw from French-led security pacts to form their own security agreements. States like Senegal have even called for a reassessment of French ties.
As a result, France’s turn to Morocco and its recognition of Rabat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara is hoped to reverse this recent loss of friends on the African continent.
The same month that France recognised Rabat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, Morocco and Burkina Faso signed a military cooperation agreement. Many of the (northwest) African states that France has lost as allies are growing increasingly closer to the North African kingdom.
Cape Verde, Gambia and Guinea have all shown support for Morocco’s autonomy plan in the Western Sahara, with these forms of recognition complementing Morocco’s security and trade role in Northwest Africa over the past decade.
Former US Special Envoy for the Sahel Region of Africa John Peter Pham argues that Morocco’s “increasing reengagement with Africa and its emergence as a key political, security and economic actor [is] integral to the continent’s future” and that “Morocco’s willingness to shoulder the challenges in the Maghreb and Sahel makes it an important strategic partner for the United States”.
With Rabat’s economic projects like the Atlantic Initiative, which promotes access to the Atlantic Ocean via Morocco for landlocked Sahel states and an increase in bilateral agreements with African states, Morocco is an ever-active regional partner that Paris does not want to snub.
What's next?
France and Morocco have reportedly signed agreements worth up to €10 billion during President Macron's visit, with more deals expected on energy and infrastructure.
France’s recognition of Rabat’s autonomy plan indicates that Paris cannot afford to lose Morocco as its top African partner, no doubt hoping that the reward for France’s support will be the kingdom lobbying African partners to reengage with Paris.
While Algeria may be displeased, perhaps France’s decision is an accurate reassessment of Morocco’s regional status as it deepens its engagement with Africa, including through a Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, which has replaced the cancelled Maghreb-Europe pipeline that brought Algerian gas to Morocco but was turned off by Algiers due to diplomatic tensions.
Morocco’s projects are securing US and European backing as Rabat emerges as a regional leader.
For Rabat, France’s capitulation to their sovereignty demands in Western Sahara and change of course in a decades-held position was a welcome first step in mending strained ties.
Dr Nicolai Due-Gundersen is a political analyst and author of Non-Democratic Legitimacy During the Arab Spring: Defending Dictatorship (Palgrave MacMillan)
Follow him on X: @nicolaiofarabia