The assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on Tuesday was the first killing of a senior Hamas figure abroad since the current Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began in October.
While the regional ramifications of the high-level assassination have yet to be seen, analysts believe the move could foreshadow an Israeli assassination campaign against Hamas leaders across the region and possibly beyond.
Arouri, the deputy to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a drone strike in Beirut on Tuesday. He has been described as the group’s “main link” with Hezbollah and its patron, Iran.
“Arouri was amongst the most important links between Hamas and the IRGC, which explains him being based in Beirut,” Arash Azizi, author of The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran’s Global Ambitions, the upcoming What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom, and a PhD candidate in history at New York University, told The New Arab.
“He was part of this new Beirut-based leadership that turned Hamas to be much more pro-Tehran, much more deadly against Israel after a period in which the organization had clashed with Tehran over the war in Syria and sometimes even seemed to have workable relations with Israel,” Azizi said.
The 57-year-old Arouri helped establish Hamas’ armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
Since becoming Haniyeh’s deputy in 2017, Arouri has been involved in many of the group’s major political decisions. He was reportedly “at the heart of negotiations” sponsored by Qatar and Egypt for a ceasefire in Gaza and releasing the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
Israeli and American officials also believe he played a role in organising the unprecedented 7 October attack on Israel.
“It is true that he was also a long-time rival of (Mohammed) Deif (the current head of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades), which complicates Arouri’s relationship to the 7 October attacks,” Azizi said. “But Israel’s increasing attacks on Lebanon, including in Beirut and Naqqura, in addition to its brutal assault on Gaza, puts a lot of pressure on Hezbollah and Iran to ‘do something’ and risks serious escalation.”
Since 7 October and the ensuing war in Gaza, senior Israeli officials have repeatedly declared Israel will eliminate the entire Hamas leadership.
The day after Arouri’s assassination, Mossad chief David Barnea vowed the intelligence agency was “committed to settling accounts with the murderers” and it would target everyone “directly or indirectly”involved in the 7 October attack.
In November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had “instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are”.
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Israel’s internal Shin Bet security forces chief, Ronen Bar, also declared Israel will “eliminate Hamas”, similar to how it assassinated members of Black September in Operation Bayonet, Israel’s response to the 1972 Munich Summer Olympics massacre.
In his remarks on Wednesday, Barnea also highlighted Israel’s reaction to that massacre as a precedent for what it plans today, saying it will also take time, “but we will put our hands on them wherever they are”.
“I do believe we might be facing a new Operation Bayonet, a systematic assassination of (Iran-backed) Axis of Resistance leaders who might have had anything to do with the 7 October attacks,” Azizi said. “It very well fits with Israel’s long-established modus operandi of revenge.”
Azizi estimates that Israel would want to target Deif but would also go after other leading Hamas figures like Haniyeh, former Hamas head Khaled Meshaal, Gaza-based leader Yayha Sinwar, and co-founder Mahmoud Al-Zahar.
Additionally, Israel might target Mousa Abu Marzook, former deputy chairman of Hamas’ political bureau, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary-general Ziyad al-Nakhaleh and other PIJ leaders.
Nicholas Heras, the senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, pointed out Israel has a “long-standing doctrine” of permitting extensive “targeted assassination campaigns against national security threats”.
“Israel’s war against Hamas includes a campaign targeting important Hamas operatives throughout the world, without limits on members of the Hamas leadership that have military roles,” Heras told The New Arab.
Israel has officially taken no responsibility for the Arouri killing, with Netanyahu’s foreign media spokesperson, Mark Regev, stressing the strike was “not an attack on the Lebanese state” or even “an attack on the Hezbollah terrorist organization”.
His comments are widely interpreted as an attempt to limit the potential risk of retaliation since Hezbollah likely feels compelled to respond firmly to an Israeli strike so deep inside Lebanon.
Since the current war began, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in their most significant clashes since the 2006 war but have adhered to a set of undeclared rules of engagement that prevent these clashes from escalating into all-out war. Arouri’s assassination was undoubtedly a major red line for Hezbollah.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed Arouri’s killing will “not go unpunished” and “there will be no ceilings, no rules” when it comes to his group’s response.
Israel is also widely suspected of having assassinated senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards official Sayyed Razi Mousavi in Damascus, Syria, on 25 December. Iranian media dubbed him “one of the oldest advisers of the IRGC in Syria”, and Iran’s leadership vowed to avenge his death.
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“The Arouri assassination is indeed extra significant because it’s on Lebanese territory, although the killing of Sayyed Razi was also quite significant given his key role in IRGC operations in Syria,” Azizi said.
“The Iranian regime and Hezbollah are now in a very tough spot,” he added. “Some would argue that they need to respond to establish a pretence of deterrence, but they’ll also be very worried about getting themselves into a direct confrontation with a very angry Israel.”
Azizi suggests Tehran and Hezbollah may try to find “the sweet spot” of committing to an attack that demonstrates they did something while avoiding a wider war. However, he also suspects Netanyahu may have decided to extend the Gaza war into Lebanon to “force Hezbollah to fight as Israel did” in 2006.
Turkey also hosts Hamas leaders and has already warned Israel of “serious consequences” if it targets Hamas members on Turkish soil. Ankara recently detained over 30 people it accused of having Mossad links.
Then, there is the Hamas political leadership in Qatar, which includes Haniyeh. While Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar suggested Israel would target Hamas in the Gulf country, Netanyahu has reportedly given Doha assurances it will not.
In November, Georges Malbrunot, a French journalist for Le Figaro, cited sources claiming Qatar had sought this precondition “before assuming its role as a mediator in the abductee issue”.
Assassinating a senior Hamas member in a Gulf country would not be wholly unprecedented. Israel is widely suspected of having assassinated Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a co-founder of the al-Qassam Brigades, in a hotel room in Dubai in January 2010.
Azizi believes “clandestine requests” carried “by Turkey, or, indirectly, via the US, Qatar” could “temper” Israel to spare some Hamas leaders, such as those currently residing in Qatar and Turkey who are not members of the al-Qassam wing.
“At some point, the Arab League might also try to speak some sense to Israel, perhaps again via the US, as such attacks might be destabilizing not just to Palestine and Lebanon but to other countries in the region,” he said.
Qatar is unique, considering it hosts both the Hamas leadership and the largest US military base in the region at Al Udeid Air Base. Incidentally, Washington recently reached a deal with Doha to extend its presence at Al Udeid for another ten years.
“I think Israel might not make a sharp distinction between various Hamas leaders and hit them where it can except when it might be tempered by communications made by parties mentioned above,” Azizi said.
“An assassination on Qatari soil would be a serious escalation and might even lead to diplomatic retaliation by some of the few Arab countries that recognize Israel,” he added. “But as the 2010 Dubai case shows, it won’t be unprecedented,” he added.
Heras of the New Lines Institute is sceptical of assassinations occurring in Qatar anytime soon since the Hamas leaders there, such as Haniyeh and Meshaal, are “more politically than militarily focused” and are not yet “primary targets” for Israel.
“These types of officials have a role to play in developing a post-Hamas order in Gaza and are, until now, quietly protected by the Americans for this reason,” Heras said.
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon