Generation Erdogan: How young voters could shape Turkey's future

Istanbul - On the ground floor of a small building in Istanbul, a window displays a large logo representing two ears of wheat joined by a star, and the letters ‘TIP’.

This is the Sariyer district on the European side of the city, a neighbourhood known for its student population.

"Our debate is not over yet. But I have a little time to spare," Asli, 21, who studies political science and international relations, says.

"I am a member of the Workers' Party of Turkey (TIP), we have organised a meeting with about thirty people from all political sides to present our program and our party. They are all students at Boğaziçi University," she told The New Arab.

Like many other young Turks, Sunday’s election will be the first time she will vote.

"For candidates in the 14 May elections, the youth vote, which represents about 10% of the population, is a key issue"

The Erdogan generation

Along Nisbetiye Street, which faces Boğaziçi University, Asli sits at a bar of the busy neighbourhood. She orders a Turkish beer. "Every day we get closer to the election, I am both anxious and excited. This is our chance to kick Erdogan out of power," she told The New Arab.

With a slightly nervous gesture, she lights a cigarette. "I have only known Erdogan as the head of Turkey, it is strange to think that we will probably turn this page. It is hard to imagine Turkey without thinking of Erdogan. But we are tired. Women's freedoms are reduced, the corruption of the justice system is reinforced, and now we are plunged into an economic crisis,” she says.

“Moreover, there is this nauseating atmosphere created by the hate speech of the power against minorities. I am Alevi, we are Muslims but not Sunnis. I do not want to live in a country where the power makes me feel that I am not part of the society."

This Sunday, Turks are voting for both their president and their deputies. For the legislative elections, Asli will vote with her heart, for the socialist party, the TIP. But for the presidency, she will vote strategically, choosing the social democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, Erdogan's main rival who is ahead of him according to many polls.

Like many Turks, she is willing to make political concessions to get Erdogan out.

"I would like to study in France. But even if Erdogan is re-elected, if I leave, it will be for a short time” she says. “I will come back to Turkey, I want to fight here."

This is not the case for all young people. For the past three years, the Turkish lira has been experiencing record inflation. In this context, the unemployment rate of Turks between 15-24 is about 22.4% according to the World Bank.

More and more young people want to leave the country if Erdogan remains in power. Yigit is a 22-year-old electrical engineering student whose family is originally from Anatolia. He lives in Istanbul with his parents.

“I cannot imagine my future here if Erdogan wins, if the situation does not change."

"For these elections, young people will be representative of wider society, which is polarised between anti and pro-Erdogan sentiments"

The youth vote, a political stake

For candidates in the 14 May elections, the youth vote, which represents about 10% of the population, is a key issue.

During their rallies, they regularly address the youth, whom they call on to mobilise. This Sunday, a giant meeting of AKP supporters was organised at the old Atatürk airport in Istanbul.

Among the crowd, Yassir, 23, came with a group of friends. They are all part of the AKP youth movement.

"In my opinion, Erdogan has done a lot for Turkey in the last 20 years," he said.

"He carries our flag abroad, on various fronts. He is a true patriot and a good Muslim. He defends our traditions. I am not afraid of the economic crisis, but I am afraid of the opposition that will destroy our values."

During the election campaign, Erdogan has developed a discourse around Turkey's strategic autonomy and international influence, with nationalist and religious accents. This rhetoric works among a part of the youth, who seek to keep in power someone they view as a strong leader.

Even if many young supporters of the AKP recognise the difficulty of the economic crisis, they prefer to emphasise the policies of the early Erdogan years, in the 2000s, which had allowed Turkey to develop considerably.

It is difficult to predict how young people will vote on Sunday. One thing that is certain though is that the participation rates are always high, whatever the elections, usually around 80%.

For these elections, young people will be representative of wider society, which is polarised between anti and pro-Erdogan sentiments. But one element will make a key difference for this generation: the tools they use to inform themselves.

"The 'power' is omnipresent on the main official media, the speaking time of the AKP and its allies is around 60 times more important than that of the opposition,” researcher Aurélien Denizeau, who works on Turkey, told The New Arab.

“Nevertheless, young people are getting much more information on the internet, and on social networks, where the opposition has succeeded in being very present to bypass the locked official media. This may have an impact on their vote this Sunday."

"For our generation, these elections are the last chance to save democracy"

The 'last chance vote'

Last Saturday, in Maltepe Sahil Park, thousands of Turks gathered for a huge meeting organised by the coalition of six parties in the Nation Alliance, led by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.

Mayza, 21, is studying at the University of Ankara, but had come to Istanbul for the weekend. "What is at stake today, with these elections is crucial. It is the future of our institutions."

Since the failed coup in July 2016 and the shift from a parliamentary system to a presidential one in 2017, the stranglehold on universities and the media has tightened.

Opposition candidate Kiliçdaroglu has promised to fight corruption and restore Turkey's parliament, which has attracted a large part of the youth.

Among many young Turks, this criticism of an increasingly authoritarian system resonates strongly.

"For our generation, these elections are the last chance to save democracy,” Mayza says.

Ines Gil is an independent journalist based in Beirut. Her work has appeared in Le Point, Europe 1, Les Clés du Moyen-Orient , Réforme, L'Echo, Les News 24, 15-38 Méditerranée, Kapaw.

Follow her on Twitter: @InesGil__