Can France fill the Washington-created vacuum in Iraq?

A surge in multipolar competition over resources, trade routes, and markets, particularly in the Middle East, has prompted France to join this great power game, as Paris’ engagement with Iraq and the wider Middle East exemplifies.

On 4 December, Emmanuel Macron’s office announced that the French president would meet Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani in early 2023. The two leaders spoke over the telephone, with Macron inviting al-Sudani to France.

This follows al-Sudani’s appointment as prime minister in mid-October, concluding a year of political infighting after a national election. Paris also denounced Iranian strikes against Kurdish targets in northern Iraq and has pledged to uphold support for the country’s sovereignty.

"France's engagement in Iraq has often been portrayed as a vacuum-filling sequence amid the US' ostensible disengagement in that country and across the wider region"

Interestingly, the announcement almost immediately followed the first-ever meeting between US President Joe Biden and Macron in Washington, wherein both pledged to upgrade their relations and rally further against China.

Iraq came under the spotlight too. In a joint statement published by the White House, the two leaders pledged that Washington and Paris “remain committed to maintain the means and capabilities necessary for the counterterrorism mission in Iraq and Syria as members of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS”.

During the meeting, the leaders reiterated mutual concerns over countering Iran and China. Yet the meeting could also have been an attempt to ensure that Biden refrains from military action against Tehran in the region, as the EU has been more pragmatic on the issue of Tehran, including countering its regional influence and nuclear development program.

Increased French engagement

France’s engagement in Iraq has often been portrayed as a vacuum-filling sequence amid the US’ ostensible disengagement in that country and across the wider region.

Amid the planned withdrawal of US troops last year, Macron vowed in August 2021 to maintain French troops in the country “regardless of the Americans’ choices” and “for as long as the Iraqi government is asking for our /support”.

One week later, French energy giant Total signed contracts with Iraq worth $27 billion to develop the country’s oil and natural gas fields and other projects to boost these industries in the oil-rich country.

Since the civil war that followed the US-led invasion in 2003, France has eyed-up increased engagement in Iraq and expanded its economic reach and soft power. Unlike the US, Paris does not have the negative legacy that Washington has in the country, having opposed the 2003 invasion, placing it as a more favourable Western actor to gain a foothold there.

Having established ties with the former administration of Mustafa al-Kadhimi last year, signalling a French pivot towards Iraq, Paris has played a role in supporting Iraq’s security. It denounced attacks in the Iraqi Kurdistan region in July and October 2022, the latter of which it attributed to Iran.

Following the new prime minister’s appointment in October, the French Foreign Minister stated that Paris “remains fully committed to helping the Iraqi authorities to preserve their country’s sovereignty and to strengthen its institutions and will work alongside them to improve security and stability in Iraq and throughout the region.”

Iraq is also said to still be looking for new security support from France, namely through the purchase of Paris’ Rafale aircraft. In February 2022, the Iraqi Defence Ministry announced it hoped to buy 14 Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France. Baghdad reportedly hoped to pay $240 million for the jets in oil, rather than cash. This also came alongside a larger package of up to $3.4 billion dollars’ worth of French military equipment.

"Having established ties with the former administration of Mustafa al-Kadhimi last year, signalling a French pivot towards Iraq, Paris has played a role in supporting Iraq's security"

While offering other forms of support for Iraq’s security, France also pledged nearly half a million dollars in November 2022 to protect Iraqi civilians impacted by the ongoing danger of landmines and remove explosive ordnance in the Basra region.

Such moves would help it to counteract domestic security threats, such as a possible Islamic State (IS) resurgence, and regional concerns such as Tehran’s encroaching influence. It is understood that this would replace Baghdad’s reliance on US aircraft, although whether the US would enable Paris to sell aircraft to Baghdad remains to be seen.

Filling the vacuum?

Macron has also sought to play a leadership role within the EU since Brexit and Angela Merkel’s departure as Germany’s Chancellor and has hoped it can play a pragmatic alternative to the US role.

France’s actions elsewhere in the world such as the Indo-Pacific and Africa indicate Macron is looking for a bigger role for the EU to play in the region, and this would be true of the Middle East.

Despite some differences, Paris and Washington still share some concerns, particularly over Iran, as stated in Biden and Macron’s meeting. However, because France and the EU had opposed the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement under Donald Trump, France will hope to play a more balanced role, also being one of the ‘least disliked’ countries by Iran.

"Whether France can truly counter Iran and China and build networks independent of Tehran and Beijing in Iraq is questionable"

And given both Macron and Biden also reiterated concerns over China during their meeting, countering Beijing could also be an option for Paris. China has expanded its clout and invested billions in Iraq’s oil fields and infrastructure, per its so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

France has opposed China’s influence elsewhere globally, from the Indo-Pacific to Africa. And given China’s sway in the Middle East, Iraq is likely to be no exception.

With Iraq’s geostrategic location between Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, and with China also establishing a 25-year strategic partnership agreement with Tehran in March 2020, estimated to be worth $1 trillion, and also its connectivity with the Gulf region, Iraq could be an important chokepoint to undermine China’s expansion in the wider region.

France would fear, like the US, that China could gain full access to the region through Iran, particularly in Lebanon, where Macron has also made overtures in recent years and sees it as historically important.

Currently, the US is not playing a competitive role with China or any power in Iraq; it is more focused on Ukraine and Russia and countering Beijing in the South China Sea. This leaves room for another Western power to move into Iraq, and this would likely be France.

Whether France can truly counter Iran and China and build networks independent of Tehran and Beijing in Iraq is questionable.

With only 800 troops in the country, and amid competition from other regional and global powers, France would struggle to become a security guarantor that could replace the US.

Yet through increased investments and security support for Iraq’s new government, Macron would hope Paris could eventually increase its clout in the country.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey