Can Egyptians forgive the regime for inaction in Rafah?

In Egypt, everyone from talk show hosts to waiters in coffee shops are outraged about the horrific violence in Rafah.

There is widespread anger over the constant stream of graphic images, the deaths of two Egyptian soldiers at the hands of Israeli forces, and frustration that Egypt cannot, or will not, do anything to help its Palestinian neighbours in their greatest hour of need.

As anger mounts and the death toll rises even higher on their borders, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi continues to call for peace, even after Israel violated the decades-old Camp David treaty by seizing the Philadelphi Corridor, and his regime shows no sign of taking action.

But will Egyptians ever forgive the regime for this inertia, or will sitting on his hands while Gaza burns come to define Sisi’s presidency?

“There is little doubt that many Egyptians oppose their government’s position on the war in Gaza, especially regarding the Rafah crossing,” Hossam Abougabal, a MENA analyst at geopolitical firm Dragonfly, told The New Arab.

Public opinion wants the regime to put pressure on Israel to stand down its attacks on Rafah and withdraw from the border.

Despite decades of a close security alliance, many Egyptians regard Israel as public enemy number one and fail to see why the regime continues to comply with Israel, especially as they’ve held the Camp David treaty in little regard.

"There is little doubt that many Egyptians oppose their government's position on the war in Gaza, especially regarding the Rafah crossing"

While public anger simmers, the regime’s very reason for existence is under threat, as it cannot be the all-powerful military leadership it claims to be. There is also a widening gulf between how Egyptians want the regime to act and the actions of their rulers, which could be incendiary.

“The [Gaza] situation is difficult for the regime as it’s hitting its core ideological construct,” Maged Mandour, an Egyptian writer and political analyst, told The New Arab.

“The regime can’t protect its national security, which is everything it stands for. If people were allowed to act, this could be explosive.”

Will domestic anger fuel action?

Domestic anger is flaring across the nation as seen in videos from the funeral of 22-year-old soldier Abdullah Ramadan who was shot by Israeli forces last week in a border skirmish.

On social media Egyptians widely reshared videos of his funeral showing hundreds of men emotionally chanting, “There is no God but Allah, and the martyr is Allah’s beloved”. Thousands of Egyptians wrote comments on Ramadan’s Facebook page, with many urging the government to take action in response to his death.

Prominent opposition figures have also taken to social media to call for a stronger response from the regime. Hesham Sabry questioned why Sisi was in China when Egyptian soldiers were being killed and the “enemy” is lurking by the border. 

Despite the outrage, domestic anger is unlikely to lead to action, not just because those daring to speak out face repression, but also because the regime is unwilling to listen to its critics.

“The Egyptian government is unlikely to listen to the public on such matters,” Abougabal commented. “The Egyptian military views itself as the supreme authority in the country and is rarely swayed by public opinion,” he added.

“Instead, it will very likely rely on high levels of repression to limit and mute the public’s reaction. The arrests of pro-Palestine protesters in recent months point to this.”

Since 7 October, at least 120 activists protesting in support of Palestine have been detained by Egyptian authorities and public displays of anger over Israel’s actions have been repressed.

“The Egyptian security forces, and the military, are confident that they can weather public opinion that goes against their policies, particularly on matters of national security.”

"The Egyptian security forces, and the military, are confident that they can weather public opinion that goes against their policies, particularly on matters of national security"

The regime's hands are tied

Even if they listened to the people, there are limits to the role the regime could play due to its weakened external position. Israel’s invasion of Rafah and violation of the Camp David treaty have been met with silence from Sisi’s regime, which is likely to continue as Cairo seeks to placate its international allies.

“The regime is keeping quiet and it will keep on doing nothing,” Mandour said. “There was talk of joining the South African case against Israel at the ICJ, but this has fallen away,” he added.

“It’s very clear Egypt is in a weak position externally due to its debt position and weak regional position. The regime cares more about foreign relations with the US, EU, and Gulf States than a domestic uprising.”

Despite outwardly calling for Israel to withdraw from Rafah, Egypt is unlikely to take any actual measures as they could threaten its geopolitical interests.

“Egypt is hesitant to act or impose any punitive measures against Israel because it probably thinks doing so would be against its strategic interests,” Abougabal said.

“Security ties between Israel and Egypt also run deep, and tied to this is the US military assistance to Egypt, so it sees it in its wider interest to not let border incidents like this escalate.”

In the case of Egyptian soldier Abdullah Ramadan, his death was hushed up by Egyptian media and he was not given a military funeral, which he should have been granted under usual protocol.

“They’re already downplaying the incident, it seems like there is an agreement between Israel and Egypt to bury the matter quickly,” Mandour said.

Can Egyptians ever forgive the regime?

Egypt has a long and difficult relationship with Israel over the Sinai border and many Egyptians regard the current inaction in Rafah as not only a betrayal of the Palestinian people but also an injustice to those who died during the 1973 war and the sacrifices Egypt made following the signing of the Camp David treaty.

“It’s very shameful that Egypt is not stopping a massacre and famine just across from its border,” Mandour said. “There are actions which Egypt could have taken earlier on to limit the death and destruction in Gaza.”

"It's very clear Egypt is in a weak position externally due to its debt position and weak regional position. The regime cares more about foreign relations with the US, EU, and Gulf States than a domestic uprising"

While there are calls for the regime to take action in response to the atrocities in Rafah, many Egyptians continue to favour the military and support its strategy to not allow Palestinians into Sinai en masse.

“The military and the public appear aligned on avoiding the displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, the most important element for many,” Abougabal said.

“And even among the public, there are varying views on how to achieve this. In any case, the Egyptian military still enjoys widespread support.”

Lara Gibson is a Cairo-based journalist closely following Egypt's economic and political developments.

Follow her on Twitter: @lar_gibson