Can China replace US hegemony in the Middle East?

The recent visit of China's President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia to attend the first China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit consolidated ties between Beijing and Gulf states.

The visit also laid the foundations for a partnership that might concern the United States and its allies. However, it is still unlikely that China would be able to replace American hegemony in the region.

Xi visited Riyadh for a three-day trip, where he attended several meetings with leaders from Gulf and Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to strengthen trade and investment relations with the region.

"From the perspective of Gulf countries, Xi Jinping's visit to the region was meant to show the United States and the European Union that they are not without options"

China and Gulf countries have signed strategic agreements to strengthen cooperation in different fields, including oil and LNG trade, nuclear energy, finance and investment, 5G and 6G technology, aerospace, and cultural cooperation.

In particular, Chinese and Saudi companies signed 34 agreements during the Summit. "The leapfrog growth of China-GCC relations is attributed to the profound mutual trust," Xi Jinping remarked.

"China and GCC countries have all along supported each other's sovereignty and independence, respected each other's development paths, upheld equality between countries regardless of their size, and stood firm in defending multilateralism. It is attributed to the high degree of complementarity," he said during his speech at the summit.

China has gained more influence in the Middle East over the past decade. Its relationship with the region mainly focuses on energy demand and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013 and designed to make China the centre of global trade networks.

But in political terms, Beijing has been cautious not to become too involved in the region, as it still believes that the US can take responsibility for providing security in the Middle East.

However, recent international events, notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have led China to strengthen relations with Gulf countries as Beijing’s current stance over the war makes it more challenging to deal with G7 countries.

Zeno Leoni, a lecturer in the Defence Studies Department and Lau China Institute at King's College of London, told The New Arab that Xi has recently acknowledged that China is living through a difficult time internationally amid a stern response from the United States and its allies.

"China's relations with the Gulf confirm that it wants to build its sphere of influence through partnerships with other countries because it understands that it will be difficult to develop partnerships with Western countries in the short term due to the war between Russia and Ukraine," he said.

However, strengthening relations with Gulf countries is not a random choice for China. Both parties share similar policies that could create productive partnerships.

China's vision for its BRI project converges with the Gulf region's long-term economic and social initiatives, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Oman's Vision 2040, Qatar's Vision 2030, and Kuwait's Vision 2035.

"China is not interested in replacing the US' hegemony in the region as a whole. From the point of view of its strategic culture and military doctrine, the Chinese do not want to take on this kind of commitment"

On the one hand, Gulf countries aim to modernise every aspect of their societies and diversify their oil-based economies. On the other, China would be able to satisfy the Gulf's needs in terms of know-how, infrastructure, and technology, and could secure energy resources for itself in light of current international events.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has produced a series of effects at the international level which have seen the interests of China and Gulf countries converge.

Europe's need for new energy suppliers to replace Russia has led EU countries to look at the Middle East and North Africa region to satisfy its demand.

The US-Saudi Arabia crisis over oil production to stop, or at least contain, a steady decline in the price of oil per barrel on international markets weakened relations between the two countries. 

Furthermore, the talks between Saudi Arabia and China reported in March to consider pegging some of the kingdom's oil sales to China's currency further strained ties with the Biden administration.

This scenario may favour China, which imports huge amounts of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.

However, it is hasty to think that the revamped partnership between China and Gulf states may lead Beijing to widen its sphere of influence in the region. 

Leoni explained that providing infrastructure and technology to Gulf countries to help to modernise their industry may not be enough to make China a superpower in the region.

Furthermore, he argues that the US wouldn't represent a competitor for China in these terms as it would provide something that the US wouldn't offer to Gulf states.

"In this historical moment, China's strategy is to establish a partnership with countries not to risk being isolated in the international landscape, and it can't become a superpower without those kinds of relationships," he said.

But China doesn't want to become a hegemon in the region as traditionally interpreted by the West.

"China is not interested in replacing the US' hegemony in the region as a whole. From the point of view of its strategic culture and military doctrine, the Chinese do not want to take on this kind of commitment and probably neither can as China is not militarily prepared," Leoni continued.

Many Gulf countries understand that their peace and security are closely tied to their relationship with the US, but also that China can help them capitalise on their investments in different sectors.

While the US and EU may limit their investments in the Gulf region due to concerns over human rights and other issues, China's approach makes it easier for the Gulf states to achieve their goals.

But what may concern Gulf states in their relationship with China is its diplomatic balancing act between them (notably Saudi Arabia) and Iran.

Beijing has a long-standing relationship with Tehran, and the Chinese leadership has carefully managed this relationship to maintain neutrality and safeguard its own economic, political, and security interests.

So far, it has achieved this by staying out of the fray of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran and pursuing a policy of equivalency in its diplomatic engagements and military cooperation.

However, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have expressed disappointment with China's actions regarding the other country over time.

"What may concern Gulf states in their relationship with China is its diplomatic balancing act between them (notably Saudi Arabia) and Iran"

"This is an issue that needs to be monitored because the Chinese remain somewhat ambiguous as it doesn't want to take responsibility, which says a lot about how ready it is to be a leader in the region and replace the US," Zeno said.

China is willing to do business with both Iran and Gulf states, as it sees value in maintaining relationships with both. However, China has a longer-term interest in Iran, as Tehran can provide the military logistics that China needs. 

But for the time being, cooperation with the Gulf states is a convenient option for China. 

From the perspective of Gulf countries, Xi Jinping's visit to the region was meant to show the United States and the European Union that they are not without options and can use their increased strategic importance to gain the best from both the West and China.

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights

Follow him on Twitter: @DarioSabaghi