In a letter published on X on 21 July, US President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to contend for the White House with former president Donald Trump in November's election.
Biden's announcement shook up the presidential race and came after increasing pressure from within the Democratic Party, and among members, that he should step down after a poor performance in the 27 June debate against Trump in which his mental capability to serve was called into question.
While the focus of the election will now be on Trump, who survived an assassination attempt on 13 July, and Harris, who is expected to be officially nominated during the Democratic Convention in late August, Biden's final months in office allow for a review of his achievements during his three and a half years in the White House and an evaluation of his legacy in the Middle East.
Waning US influence in the Middle East
US foreign policy under the Biden administration has evolved since he took office in January 2021. While the main focus has been on the war in Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022 and the confrontation with China, the Middle East returned to Biden's agenda after the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October last year and Israel’s subsequent, and ongoing, war.
The brutal 10-month war on Gaza, which has killed 40,000 Palestinians, has led to fears of a regional conflict and highlighted the state of US preparedness in the region, showcasing both its strengths and weaknesses.
Brian Katulis, senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute, described Biden's approach to the Middle East, and legacy, as "feeble".
"It in many ways mirrors the image that he has right now, especially after stepping down from his re-election campaign," he told The New Arab.
Biden had set himself apart from Trump and former president Barrack Obama by advocating for increased US engagement in the Middle East in 2022, Katulis explained, however, he has faced challenges in realising this vision due to limited initial interest, resources, and external pressures such as rising oil prices and the Ukraine war.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told TNA that Biden has been a reluctant president in the Middle East, avoiding forthright engagement since the start of his administration. He has invested little in managing or containing regional crises, instead prioritising other geopolitical challenges.
"I think that the US has been, by its own choice, less influential in the Middle East. It's taken a proactive role in downgrading its influence by shifting the way it engages in the region," she said.
America's damaged reputation
Several key events have defined Biden's Middle East policy during his mandate.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, negotiated by the Trump administration but executed under Biden in 2021, harmed US foreign policy both regionally and globally. The chaotic execution of the withdrawal damaged America's leadership and credibility, particularly in the region.
Furthermore, it had domestic repercussions, as distressing images of the frenzied withdrawal, including people clinging to planes and falling off, tarnished the Biden administration's reputation.
Biden's political engagement has also been problematic in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, which he had labelled a pariah when he was the presidential candidate in 2019 after journalist Jamal Khashoggi's 2018 killing.
However, in 2022, facing inflation and rising oil prices, Biden visited Saudi Arabia and Israel, attempting to convince Riyadh to increase oil production and extract concessions that could further the Abraham Accords.
The four-day trip was an attempt to demonstrate US commitment to the region and counter threats from Iran, China, and Russia, but Biden failed to fulfil his stated promises due to the Ukraine war, among other challenges.
On Iran, meanwhile, Biden has largely continued Trump's approach, according to Vakil. Instead of pursuing a more robust nuclear agreement, Biden opted for a temporary solution to managing the crisis in relations, including the release of American dual nationals held in Iran.
By focusing too narrowly on Iran's nuclear issue, the Biden administration has repeated past mistakes. Previous administrations, including Obama and Trump, also failed to address Iran's broader threats in the region, according to Katulis, and Biden's approach was seen as weak, corroborated by the ineffective response to recent crises, including the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan and the Mahsa Amini protests, which led to a legacy of missed opportunities and perceived weakness.
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Catastrophe in Gaza
Israel’s war in Gaza, however, has been the most challenging testbed for Biden's foreign policy in the Middle East.
The Biden administration has staunchly supported Israel by sending it weapons and vetoing UN Security Council ceasefire resolutions, as well as resisting efforts by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Washington also rejected the genocide case brought against Israel by South Africa at the International Criminal Court (ICJ), as well as the global court’s order for Israel to halt military actions in Rafah, all while rights groups were documenting reports of famine and other war crimes.
"Joe Biden will always be remembered for the catastrophe in Gaza. That is Biden's war. Gaza will be his most important colossal failure,” Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told TNA.
“He literally embraced Netanyahu, fuelling the war with ammunition, bombs, using US vetoes in the Security Council, and by basically providing operational intelligence for Israel, supposedly in order to target the top leaders of Hamas."
Gerges said that the Biden administration's failed position on Gaza will overshadow all other US policies in the Middle East, with the US president perceived as having been outmanoeuvred by Netanyahu, who leveraged US support for his own agenda, even undermining Biden during critical moments like the US elections.
Biden's overt support for the Gaza war and rejection of international rulings has also further exposed US double standards, highlighting a progressive decline in US influence in the region.
"The US has been gradually retreating in the Middle East ever since the Iraq war. Biden has clearly been struggling with it, but he doubled down on support for Israel, the only consistent element of US Middle East policy," Joost Hiltermann, MENA Program Director at International Crisis Group, told TNA.
"The repercussions of the Gaza war will come to haunt the United States in the international arena for many years to come, both morally and politically, because more and more nations will now say: you preach about democracy versus autocracy and human rights and the dignity of human rights, but look what you've done in Gaza," he added.
The next US president
Trump and Harris, the contenders to become the 47th President of the United States, are now expected to face similar challenges in the Middle East.
It is uncertain how Harris's foreign policy will shape up, Katulis says, as she has primarily focused on domestic issues, such as immigration, and has limited experience with foreign policy. Although she has made some statements about the Gaza war and attended international events, it is too early to predict her approach, the analyst said.
While Trump's history and statements suggest a tougher stance on Iran and strong support for Israel, this doesn't guarantee progress in peace efforts or negotiations regarding the Gaza conflict, according to Vakil.
His approach might end the war, but it's uncertain if it will lead to lasting peace. In contrast, Harris, being relatively inexperienced in foreign policy, is likely to stay loyal to America's traditional regional allies, especially Israel.
"She might be more sympathetic to the issue of Palestine and could push that side of the spectrum more openly than President Trump or President Biden have," Vakil said.
This was partly confirmed by Harris's recent statement following Netanyahu's visit to Washington. After meeting him, Harris remarked that while Israel has the right to self-defence, "It is time for this war to end," expressing concern about the "dire humanitarian situation" in Gaza.
For any president, however, a significant change in US policy in the Middle East is unlikely, with Washington’s reputation in the region diminished, partly due to unconditional support for Israel.
“Although younger Americans are questioning this support, Congress largely maintains the current stance. The ongoing Gaza conflict could further diminish US influence, similar to the effects of the Iraq war, though perhaps not to the same extent," Hiltermann said.
Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights.
Follow him on Twitter: @DarioSabaghi