Morocco: First post-Arab Spring local elections test political parties
Analysis: The focus of Friday's municipal elections will be local and economic issues, but the poll carries political implications for the ruling coalition, its opponents and democratic transition in general
4 min read
Activists were arrested in August for distributing leaflets urging a boycott of the election [AFP]
On September 4, Moroccans will go to the polling stations to vote in municipal and regional elections, which mark the start of the North African kingdom's transition to regional devolution and decentralisation.
The poll will be the first local election since the 2011 overhaul of Morocco's constitution, following the February 20 protests, as the Arab Spring blossomed in neighbouring countries.
The elections will also take place according to a new voting system, approved by parliament in June, to select mayors and regional and municipal council members.
The elections will be a test for all political parties, whether in power or in opposition.
For the Justice and Development Party (JDP), which leads the ruling coalition, the elections will be an "approval poll".
Other parties, such as the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), which is close to the monarchy, the Independence Party and others, will be fighting a more comfortable battle thanks to their traditional power base across the kingdom.
Meanwhile, some parties, such as the Marxist Ennahj (Democratic Way) party, are calling for a boycott of the elections.
Yet despite the significance of these elections, their results will not necessarily be a decisive benchmark for what to expect in the next general election.
It's the economy...
Many Moroccans have hopes for change, especially with regard to the economy, where growth remains slow amid high unemployment rates.
However, many also remain disillusioned with the electoral process as a path to achieve this, due to what they perceive as entrenched corruption.
There have been calls to boycott the elections, though many surveyed by local Moroccan press have said a boycott of the vote would only strengthen corruption.
The JDP is aware of this, and has decided to use what it sees as its economic achievements as its trump card.
JDP Secretary General and Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane believes his administration's track record on the economy means his party deserves to come on top in Friday's elections, especially in terms of its fiscal "achievements".
Benkirane's administration has been boosted by falling oil prices and a good harvest season, which it has put to use to reduce the deficit in the government's balance sheets.
The prime minister has used these figures during electoral meetings to promote his party, promising to further reform the retirement and welfare systems to increase certain benefits.
However, his rivals believe his government failed on the key issue of employment - though the unemployment rate has marginally dropped, from 10.2 percent last year to 9.9 percent now, according to official figures.
The JDP has also been accused of making promises that cannot be delivered in the near future, and are therefore irrelevant to the current elections.
The 'deep state'
Moroccan analysts believe the JDP's key national rival will be the PAM, which dominated the last municipal elections in 2009. During those elections, however, there were wide-spread allegations of vote-buying.
It is also likely other parties opposed to the PJD would rally behind the PAM, even if not in public.
The outcome of Friday's elections will largely be determined by three factors, according to experts who spoke to al-Araby al-Jadeed's Arabic service: political alliances; the number of voters each party can rally; and the geographical extensions of each political party and its ability to field candidates in the largest possible number of electoral districts.
However, not all voting will be politically motivated, especially outside the major cities, where personal affiliations and local issues are a strong influencing factor.
It seems the JDP, which achieved strong results in trade union elections in August, is moving to gain a foothold in some Moroccan provinces outside its traditional urban strongholds.
Ultimately, many believe the electoral battle between the JDP and the PAM is essentially a battle between a platform based on change and reform of the Moroccan establishment and the "deep state" - or the forces the JDP and its allies say they are seeking to purge from state institutions after the February 2011 protests.
Whatever happens, the municipal elections in Morocco will no doubt influence the fate of Morocco's fledgling democratic transition, especially if the deep state-affiliated forces start staging a comeback.
The poll will be the first local election since the 2011 overhaul of Morocco's constitution, following the February 20 protests, as the Arab Spring blossomed in neighbouring countries.
The elections will also take place according to a new voting system, approved by parliament in June, to select mayors and regional and municipal council members.
The elections will be a test for all political parties, whether in power or in opposition.
For the Justice and Development Party (JDP), which leads the ruling coalition, the elections will be an "approval poll".
Other parties, such as the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), which is close to the monarchy, the Independence Party and others, will be fighting a more comfortable battle thanks to their traditional power base across the kingdom.
 |
The elections will be a test for all political parties, whether in power or in opposition |
Meanwhile, some parties, such as the Marxist Ennahj (Democratic Way) party, are calling for a boycott of the elections.
Yet despite the significance of these elections, their results will not necessarily be a decisive benchmark for what to expect in the next general election.
It's the economy...
Many Moroccans have hopes for change, especially with regard to the economy, where growth remains slow amid high unemployment rates.
However, many also remain disillusioned with the electoral process as a path to achieve this, due to what they perceive as entrenched corruption.
There have been calls to boycott the elections, though many surveyed by local Moroccan press have said a boycott of the vote would only strengthen corruption.
The JDP is aware of this, and has decided to use what it sees as its economic achievements as its trump card.
JDP Secretary General and Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane believes his administration's track record on the economy means his party deserves to come on top in Friday's elections, especially in terms of its fiscal "achievements".
Benkirane's administration has been boosted by falling oil prices and a good harvest season, which it has put to use to reduce the deficit in the government's balance sheets.
The prime minister has used these figures during electoral meetings to promote his party, promising to further reform the retirement and welfare systems to increase certain benefits.
However, his rivals believe his government failed on the key issue of employment - though the unemployment rate has marginally dropped, from 10.2 percent last year to 9.9 percent now, according to official figures.
The JDP has also been accused of making promises that cannot be delivered in the near future, and are therefore irrelevant to the current elections.
| "Morocco's elections may turn ugly": Read George Joffe's commentary here |
The 'deep state'
Moroccan analysts believe the JDP's key national rival will be the PAM, which dominated the last municipal elections in 2009. During those elections, however, there were wide-spread allegations of vote-buying.
It is also likely other parties opposed to the PJD would rally behind the PAM, even if not in public.
The outcome of Friday's elections will largely be determined by three factors, according to experts who spoke to al-Araby al-Jadeed's Arabic service: political alliances; the number of voters each party can rally; and the geographical extensions of each political party and its ability to field candidates in the largest possible number of electoral districts.
However, not all voting will be politically motivated, especially outside the major cities, where personal affiliations and local issues are a strong influencing factor.
It seems the JDP, which achieved strong results in trade union elections in August, is moving to gain a foothold in some Moroccan provinces outside its traditional urban strongholds.
Ultimately, many believe the electoral battle between the JDP and the PAM is essentially a battle between a platform based on change and reform of the Moroccan establishment and the "deep state" - or the forces the JDP and its allies say they are seeking to purge from state institutions after the February 2011 protests.
Whatever happens, the municipal elections in Morocco will no doubt influence the fate of Morocco's fledgling democratic transition, especially if the deep state-affiliated forces start staging a comeback.
Follow the Middle East's top stories in English at The New Arab on Google News
More In Analysis
