Palestine and the war on IS

When chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat offered US Secretary of State John Kerry a peace plan to end the Palestine-Israel conflict recently, the response was unequivocal: Put your problems on ice - we’ve got other problems right now. But once the war against the Islamic State group (IS, formerly known as ISIS) eventually comes to an end, it will become apparent that Washington’s attitudes towards the Palestinians will continue to be marked by lethargy.

During President Barack Obama’s announcement to the nation that the US would take a stand against IS, he painted a picture of a campaign that would take three years to first weaken the militant group, and a little longer to defeat it entirely. To achieve this, Obama talked of mobilising “an international alliance” of more than 50 nations, bringing war to Arab lands once again. While Obama declared that the US would not get embroiled in another ground war, he knows that aircraft and missiles might destroy targets, but they can never occupy territory. It appears that this battle will be left to regional armies and their allied militias, likely to spark an even more fierce war that will deplete Arab countries’ resources and risk the further spread of instability and insecurity across the region.

Whomever believes that the Western bombing of IS targets will weaken support for the armed group is mistaken. The group’s popularity has grown as a reaction to the sense of oppression, exclusion and sectarian discrimination that many experience each and every day. This is how the flames of hatred in civil wars are stoked, as one side’s actions compels the other to react, pushing civilians to find refuge in their own communal sect - because “the other” pushes them to entrench their isolation. To quote a well-known Arabic poem: “I am just one of a tribe. If the tribe strays, I stray, and if the tribe is rational then I am rational too.” New sympathisers might join IS as a reaction to the West’s bombing of Iraq and Syria, leading to a protracted and more widespread war.

The scope of this war will not be confined to the front lines in Iraq and Syria

New threats, new excuses

The scope of this war will not be confined to the front lines in Iraq and Syria. It is highly likely that IS will attempt to undermine the security and stability of states in the region who are part of this international alliance, with sleeper cells or new supporters creating unrest. Similarly, the ruling regimes will use this “new” security threat to further clamp down on civil liberties and eliminate opposition, regardless of their affiliations. They might also use this as an opportunity to bury reforms and suppress popular protest, including movements in solidarity with the Palestinian cause. The black clouds ushering in a new era of martial law are approaching.

Israel will do its best to play some role in this axis against the Islamic State group, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said recently, as he called for a joint Israeli-Arab front against Islamic extremism in the region. Many Arab governments fear an ambivalent US policy, or that Washington might abandon them as they did with the dictators of Tunisia and Egypt. These factors make Israel’s ambitions even more likely to succeed. Israel understands that the US is losing its influence and power on the world stage and that power politics is shifting more towards regional alliances for security. Israel seeks to convince its would-be allies in the region that it is capable of protecting the stability of their regimes and survival of their rulers, and work with them to pressure the United States from making decisions that could harm their interests. The result of this is obvious - Palestine will pay the heaviest price.

The real battle of the Palestinian people is to stop the ongoing Israeli settlement expansion and the colonisation of their land

With the Palestine question on hold and international attention elsewhere, at least until the end of the latest war, Israel will exploit the situation to feast on what remains of the West Bank and complete the Judaisation of occupied Jerusalem. It is worth mentioning that, under the ominous Oslo accord, which splits the West Bank into three parts, Area C remains under full Israeli military and civil control. Area C constitutes 61 percent of the total area of the occupied West Bank and has become populated with 675,000 Israeli settlers - compared with around 60,000 Palestinians living in villages that lie exclusively within the Israeli-controlled zone. This demographic battle can only intensify. Israel will attempt to reinforce its settlements, illegal under international law, and continue establishing them as a fait accompli – “facts on the ground” - benefiting from regional geopolitics to further isolate the Palestinians and finish off their cause.

Joining the fight

Some parties may try to mislead the Palestinian Authority and encourage its leaders to be part of the international alliance to combat what is called “Islamic terrorism”, and that this mission could extend to include the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements - or armed Palestinian groups in general. The PA may therefore now have the opportunity to rid itself of its enemies inside the occupied territories.

But President Mahmoud Abbas would be mistaken to think that the war on IS will strengthen his position with regards to his domestic foes, or even to think that this is his battle to fight. The real battle of the Palestinian people is to stop the ongoing Israeli settlement expansion and the colonisation of their land, to stand up to the occupying enemy and prevent it from achieving its nefarious goals. Palestinian involvement in any other battle is to serve the enemy’s goals, free of charge.

The luxury of time is not in Palestine’s interest. Abbas’ latest efforts received a clear response from the US administration, which is now preoccupied with arranging its next war. Should Abbas’ UN initiative for Israeli withdrawal continue, it will inevitably be met by a US veto in the Security Council. A few days or weeks after such a bid, the sound of rockets and missiles will drown out the chattering of politicians.

Obviously, any prospect for negotiations is completely unviable. What the international community is seeking to do is to keep the Palestinian cause on ice until the war on IS comes to an end. It does not care about the daily efforts by Israel to fully conquer the land it occupies – efforts that may be difficult to reverse. Therefore, the Palestinian leadership should start, immediately, with what it would end up with in case the president’s initiative fails. It should join international organisations, and address the UN General Assembly to declare Palestine a state under occupation, entitled to all forms of international protection. It should cancel all forms of security cooperation with the occupying Israeli power, which must bear the cost for its occupation of the Palestinian territories. It must reinforce all forms of resistance against the occupying force, end the Palestinian political divide and agree upon a unified approach to ending the occupation, in all parts of Palestinian territory.

Palestinians will have to turn the political tables to keep the flame alive and prevent the cause from burning out in international forums.

To revert to a sense of ease or to postpone vital decisions would be a mistake. To return to the delusion of negotiations and roadmaps would be a grave error and would merely be the latest in the series of political blunders that have marked Palestinian politics since the 1993 Oslo accords.

This article is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the original author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Al Araby Al Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.