Obama's legacy of failures in the Middle East

Barack Obama has finally left the White House, leaving behind frayed relations with allies in the Middle East and Europe as well as unresolved conflicts in Syria and Iraq.

Moscow and Tehran have dealt severe blows to US influence. and Russia's president is now calling the shots in Ukraine and Syria.

On Obama's watch, America's global influence has diminished.

Eight years of foreign policy failure by an American president have come to an end. Eight years which saw red lines crossed without penalty, the abandoning of responsibility, and even the alleged paying of ransoms.

Last August, Obama denied this latter charge. "We do not pay ransom," he said. "We didn't here, and we won't in the future."

He was responding to a Wall Street Journal story which claimed $400 million in cash had been put on pallets and flown to Iran as part of a deal to get four American prisoners released.

The administration admitted that the cash delivery had happened, but that it was not ransom money - a claim few believed.

What an ignoble end to an ignoble reign.

In 2009, President Obama's eloquent and idealistic speech to the Arab world at the Cairo University raised expectations for quick action, with clear and principled American leadership. Seven years later, the US Middle East strategy has proven to be shortsighted, ambiguous, incoherent and contradictory.

The Middle East, and even much of Europe, perceived Obama as a weak and dithering president. Writing in the Daily Telegraph last year, Charles Krauthammer listed some of the most flagrant failures.

"In October 2015, Iran test-fired a nuclear capable ballistic missile in violation of Security Council resolutions. Obama did nothing."

On Obama's watch, America’s global influence has diminished

The administration insisted that there would be no nuclear deal unless Iran accounted for its past nuclear activities. It did not.

It said Iran must allow inspection of its Parchin nuclear testing facility. Self-inspection instead took place, and the facility declared itself clean.

On Iraq

In his 2011 speech at Fort Bragg, Obama said the US would leave behind "a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people".

Events since the Iraqi withdrawal proved Obama wrong. Even the war against IS in Mosul is not going well. Former Prime Minister Maliki was a disaster, a corrupt bully who implemented divisive policies at the behest of Iran. His sectarianism backfired dramatically in 2014 when the Iraqi military disintegrated as IS attacked Mosul.

Obama failed to stand up to Maliki. Iran removed him and replaced him with Haider al-Abadi. In short, Obama failed.

On Syria

Obama's weakness was starkly reflected in his refusal to take a tough stance against the Assad regime, an ally and client of Iran. According to Washington sources, Obama was afraid action against the Syrian regime would alienate Iran and derail the nuclear talks.

Assad has been murdering, barrel-bombing, gassing and maiming the Syrian people since the eruption of peaceful protests in 2011. And while Obama turned a blind eye, Russia, Iran, Hizballah and Iraqi militias were providing military support to the Syrian regime.

Back in August 2011, the Washington Post reported that President Obama for the first time explicitly called on President Assad to step down, a symbolically significant step intended to ratchet up pressure.

"For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside." Obama failed to follow up.

Eight years of foreign policy failure by an American president have come to an end. Eight years which saw red lines crossed without penalty, the abandonment of responsibility, and even the paying of ransom.

Four years ago, the Al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front came to prominence; three years ago, IS began to make headlines. Obama did little even while Secretary of State John Kerry compared Assad with Hitler. Obama's inaction encouraged Iran and Russia to step in to prop up Assad.

When Assad imposed his "surrender or starve" sieges, Obama did nothing. When Russia intervened with its bombers in September 2015 to save Assad - and bombed schools, hospital and markets - Obama sat like an impotent spectator at a football match.

On Iran

The Iran nuclear agreement, finally reached in July last year, was hailed by the administration as a landmark deal making the world a safer place. The deal was supposed to allow UN inspectors to press for visits to Iran's military sites. The IAEA suspected that, a decade ago, Iran may have carried out explosives tests at Parchin that could be relevant to the development of nuclear weapons capability.

Many analysts consider Iran the winner in this deal. The US negotiating team had been the weakest link, giving away concessions whilst the Iranian team remained firm. The Iranians were aware that both President Obama and John Kerry were desperate to sign.

In June 2015 news leaked that Obama had written letters to Iranian President Rouhani virtually begging him to sign a deal.

The Iranian leaders celebrated by announcing that the world superpowers had acknowledged Iran's right to become a nuclear power. Obama's pro-Iran advisers told him that such rhetoric was merely for local consumption.

In the meantime, America's allies in the Gulf had interpreted US acquiescence to a nuclear-armed Iran as a de facto acceptance of growing Iranian hegemony in the Middle East in general and the Gulf in particular.

Obama was said to show toughness when he apparently told President Vladimir Putin to "cut it out" following allegations that Russia conducted cyber-attacks against the United States. It was a mild telling-off. 

Over eight years, President Obama simply became increasingly less relevant.

Nehad Ismail is a senior analyst at Wikistrat with a background in the oil industry. He has worked with Asharq Alawsat newspaper, Arab News Network and appears frequently on Arabic TV stations as a guest on economic matters.  

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.